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Santarus, Inc. (SNTS) Message Board

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  • nowwheretogo22004 nowwheretogo22004 Oct 6, 2011 9:51 AM Flag

    Party!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    When you're right, you're right!

    The company will likely make $.10 in earnings this quarter. The analysts have it at a penny! I was actually hoping they had a big upfront payment for a new drug license purchase that would have brought it down to $.01, but since they didn't, I'll take the big earnings "surprise" in early November.

    In December, they announce the NDA filing and more press comes out about just how successful this drug could be.

    It has been a long time coming, but the good news train is arriving soon.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Hey nowwhere,

      Why do you believe in the surprise? Opinion?
      I am cautiously optimistic on this one. Appeal still lingers, earnings are not a slam dunk IMO, still a shaky market (despite an amazing October), etc.
      I do like to see the nice volume increase today and it finally running back to that 3.30 resistance area. We shall know soon enough.
      regards

      • 2 Replies to chipnputt_98
      • What is the analytical basis for the skepticism you posters have on the likeliood of reversal of the trial court? Is is something about this case or the general idea that trial court decisons in the federal system are difficult to reverse? I am really curious. I keep reading negative conclusions with no analysis. The serious literature reveals that reversals in nonobviousness cases vastly exceed reversals on other patent issues on appeal, so much so that they skew the analyes of the average rate of patent case reversals in the Federal Circuit and are, therefore, often disregarded.

      • I feel really, really good about the earnings and I am simultaneously concerned and waiting for the results of the patent appeal results. I put it at a 10% chance of winning, and I'm afraid that others put it much higher than that and those results may push the stock back down again temporarily. But if that appeal does go our way, then the skies the limit!

        The earnings are a lock because they openly stated that they were looking for opportunities to license or buy another product. That would have cost upfront money, and they wouldn't want to miss their earnings number as a result of it. So, in my estimation, they built the extra cost into their forecast. We will know if that is correct in a little more than a week from now.

    • Someone is paying $3.00 to go to the dance.

      They know that in a little bit it will cost about $4.00 for admission to the holiday dance.

    • If so, what is the appropriate P/E?

      • 1 Reply to khumbu61
      • Well now we are just breaking even. If we have a good quarter report of say .05 to 0.10 like mentioned by nowhere, that would be significant.

        If you use yahoo estimate of 0.26 for 2012, which is conservative IMO, then $3.00/0.26 gives a forward PE of 11.5. Notice that sales estimates for 2011 ($114 Million) and sales estimate for 2012 ($160 Million) represents growth in sales of 40%. Of course, most predictions for earnings prove to be incorrect.

        At this point I would rather use price to sales. This gives a potential acquiring company an idea of what they are buying after they strip away the costs, since this can be done through synergies in the takeover (ie. using a sales force that is already up and running of the acquirer and laying off management of the firm that is being acquired). The cash and tax breaks are also important considerations.

        I guess you can look at what Smith wrote in his various scenarios. There are a lot of ifs a year out. If Budesonide comes out good then we hit some of Smith's price targets in a few years. Right now, we are selling for a little over 1X sales if you strip away the cash and use enterprise value. When we get rolling a reasonable PE would be around 20 and price to sales should be 2 to 4 (see what Smith wrote) based on which products are contributing and when they lose patent protection. Right now the pipeline is free and the Zegrid case is a free play (either way it turns out). We are still selling the RX generic pretty well.

        This ugly duckling may become very attractive. It usually takes some strong buys to make investors feel like the may miss out (ie the tide must shift and if it does we are golden).

        Good luck to all out there patiently waiting from Siam Kitty.

    • Yes, I am confident on the prospects for Budesonide MMX! The current product sales will keep SNTS in a good position while we wait. I have seen so many stocks drifting aimlessly about with nobody paying much attention, and then bam - "everybody wants some" Van Halen

      This thing is putting away the dingy overalls, and slipping into the party dress for New Year's gala ball. The wallflower days are numbered.

    • For me, I like to go to the party early.

      The wallflower-SNTS is going to the gym, getting tan, putting away the glasses, curling the hair, and polishing the heals.

      Whoever didn't pay her some attention early will be standing around the punchbowl, wishing they could get a dance. The price of admission will be too high for them; and the line way to long.

      Get the cheap shares, now, or you will be sorry. Anything below $3 is a great price.

 
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