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Santarus, AŞ Message Board

  • low_float_player low_float_player Apr 27, 2013 1:01 PM Flag

    Q1 2014 Numbers and estimates

    For the first quarter 2013, analysts estimate SNTS will generate revenues of
    low $72M / median $74.7M / High $79.30M
    eps 0.10 / 0.14 / 0.22
    Anayst low target $18 / Median $20 / High $22

    GLUMETZA Q3-2012 $39.3/ Q4-2012 $42.6M / Q1-2013 $46M
    ZEGERID Q3-2012 $8.4 / Q4-2012 $20.8M / Q1-2013 $23M
    CYCLOSET Q3-2012 $4.3 / Q4-2012 $4.5M / Q1-2013 $4.3M
    FENOGLIDE Q3-2012 $1.7 / Q4-2012 $1.5M / Q1-2013 $1.5M

    Without Uceris total = $75M ( expecting a 10% increase quarter over quarter for GLUMETZA + ZEGERID )
    should be able to achieve median target easily.

    However if they sell $3M uceris , which is reasonable since they launched it in Feb 2013

    then $75M + 3M = $78M

    without Uceris
    Q1 = $75M
    Q2 = $78M
    Q3 = $80M
    Q4 = $82M
    $315M / full year

    Uceris for Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4 == $3M + $5M + $5M + $5M = 18M

    Full year with Uceris = $315M + $18M = $333M
    SNTS guidance for 2013 - $320M to $325M

    Market cap at $18.11 = $1.1B
    Looking for another 50% POP as market cap should be least 4x which is $1.6B
    around $30 should be fair value

    However, if Uceris grows and they get FDA approvals and roll out the other two drugs then that's another story

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    • Q2 2013 analyst estimates are eps $0.18 (0.13-0.30) on revenues of $82.90M (80M - 87M)

    • Actual reported Beat EPS 25c
      1Q Net $18.7M
      1Q Rev $79.4M

      • 1 Reply to alicewichawitz
      • Q1 2013
        Santarus (SNTS): Q1 EPS of $0.32 beats by $0.18. Revenue of $79.44M (+73% Y/Y) beats by $4.7M. (PR). Shares are currently halted

        Total revenues increase 73% with significant increase in net income over prior year period

        Raises 2013 financial outlook to include total revenues of $330 million to $340 million, net income of $57 million to $64 million and non-GAAP adjusted earnings of $81 million to $91 million

        Mr. Proehl added, “The commercial launch of UCERIS™ for the induction of remission in patients with active, mild to moderate ulcerative colitis began in mid-February, and we reported $6.6 million in UCERIS net sales for the first quarter. We believe the UCERIS prescription trends are encouraging. We also achieved significant growth in net sales of GLUMETZA® and ZEGERID® in the first quarter.”

        GLUMETZA $ 41.5
        ZEGERID $ 24.6
        UCERIS $ 6.6
        CYCLOSET $ 3.9
        FENOGLIDE $ 1.9
        Other revenue $ 0.9
        TOTAL $ 79.4

        More on Santarus (SNTS) earnings: Sees FY13 EPS of $1.03 - $1.15, versus prior guidance of $0.92 - 1.00 and the Street consensus of $0.76. Also sees FY13 revenue of $330M -$340M, versus prior guidance of $320M -325M and the consensus of $339.3M. Shares currently halted

    • good call

    • I like Low_float_player's numbers
      Let me add some spice to it:

      $5M / quarter for Uceris means selling around $1300 would need RX 3846 ~ let us say around
      4000 which translates to 1333 / month

      I think 1333 / month is nothing when the official figures for USA is around 3M / every year

      if SNTS just takes 200,000 / year from the 3M which would work out as
      300,000 x $1300 = $400M / year

      If you add canada and mexico , add another $400M

      You are looking for additional $400M next year,
      $300M + $400M = $700M sales and market cap $1 Billion ?

      Inflammatory Bowel Disease Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is at least two, separate disorders that cause inflammation (redness and swelling) and ulceration (sores) of the small and large intestines. These two disorders are called ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease.
      Canada has one of the highest incidence and prevalence rates of inflammatory bowel disease in the world.
      The total direct and indirect costs of IBD are $1.8 billion

      The total direct medical costs for IBD were $700 million in 2008.
      In 2008, the cost of prescription drugs for the treatment of Canadian patients with IBD was $162 million ($809/patient)
      Costs associated with additional physician visits and outpatient surgeries cost $134 million in 2008

      • 2 Replies to uplatas
      • SNTS has two diabetes drugs, an acid-reflux treatment and a cholesterol drug on the market. Despite the small lineup, it has posted big EPS gains. Last quarter, Santarus' profit jumped 167% as its results trounced analysts' estimates by 700%. Shares hit a record high of 18.27 Friday and have risen 61% since the start of the year.

        In January, the biotech received FDA approval for its drug Uceris to treat ulcerative colitis, a form of inflammatory bowel disease. Santarus expects the drug will produce $300 million in annual sales.

        The above was from IBD

        SNTS expecting $300M through Uceris + $300M (through the 4 products) = $600M annual sales

        Revenues will double , so will the pps ?

        CEO says As most of you are aware recently on January 14, we did receive approval of UCERIS, about a month later we launched UCERIS and it’s doing quite well.We think the products we have in development plus UCERIS have the opportunity to actually broaden in to other indications and continue to drive revenues in the future. We will continue to look for additional products. Predominantly right now we’re focused on later stage products in gastroenterology and endocrinology but we will look at other specialty areas where we think we can have a very small sales force and still be profitable..
        About that many again with Crohn’s disease so inflammatory bowel disease overall the prevalence will be 1.4 million, 1.5 million. And you could at least double that if you were thinking of Europe. It’s a serious disease, eventually about a third of patients come to surgical removal of the colon or colectomy if they don’t receive adequate medical therapy.....he primary choice or the primary therapy is 5-ASAs. And then physicians will next reluctantly often go to systemic corticosteroids. Now what has been very positive is the feedback that we have received from physicians is that physicians do not see Uceris as being competitive to 5-ASAs. In fact they see it to be very complementary. They tell us, tha

      • NY Times has in depth article on this search for Ulcerative Colitis In-Depth Report

    • I do not work for Santarus, but I am hearing that sales of Uceris have exceeded objectives overall. Not only has Uceris exceeded sales objectives, but it has been well received so far. Additionally, Zegerid has at least met and in some cases exceeded sales objectives too.

      Since Uceris and Zegerid make a majority of their expected revenues, I believe they will report on the higher end of revenue forecasts based in part from my own due diligence and from the information I was able to gather, but also due to the fact I have faith in SNTS' management.

      However, a reported increase in expected Revs alone will not be enough to propel the stock price in my opinion. The current stock price reflects fully a 65% YOY growth expectation, so they will NEED FORWARD GUIDANCE that supports a much higher growth rate. Not only will the Revs need to guide higher, but also an commensurate increase in earnings will be needed. If they can guide higher, then we will see this stock price increase. This is a growth company where growth is a rare commodity these days, so if they can guide higher then we will see SNTS' value explode. If not, I do not expect a big jump in PPS if any at all.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Buy at Monday open and thank me later after 6 months

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