After seven years as a shareholder I have come to be an ardent believer in Gerry Proehl's vision for the company. Assuming we are not acquired in the near term, I believe many acquisitions will come within the next few years together with the types of licensing arrangements that we now have. For the true longs I think we are likely to have a $70 to $100 stock in the next five years, but acknowledge that it may be difficult fending off an acquisition of ourself. This is as good a management team as I have seen in 30+ years of investing. I look forward to seeing what it does with the profits and the large recovery from Par. What I don't doubt is that that largesse will be exploited very wisely.
I think Par still has the unlikely option of going before the Supreme Court. Barring that, a settlement offer is imminent if not already in motion. However, the leverage that Santarus has is both time and no immediate need for the funds. The longer they wait, the more the Zegerid sales will booked effectively adding dollars to the damages claim.
Proehl and Santarus wants $400 million and I believe a legitmate claim is for around 220 to 240 million which accounts for both lost revenues, legal fees (loser has to pay), and relative lost opportunity costs resulting in Santarus' reduction in its salesforce.
I do not expect any serious news on this until the trial is set to begin in November 2014 as I am sure Proehl will hold Par's feet to the fire.
I would guess it would be somewhere in the middle of your range--$200 to $250 million. But there is plenty of alchemy employed to come come to a number and remember there will be a jury if it goes to trial and some great legal counsel.