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Santarus, AŞ Message Board

  • siamesekitty711 siamesekitty711 Jul 18, 2013 11:11 PM Flag

    Earnings Clue, Do you see $90+ million in sales for Q2?

    Thanks, this was a possibility in my mind.

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    • Let us see what the numbers will be

    • Yes. Based on the average weekly script of 870 for Uceris for the last 12 weeks (data from the slide show presentation) I expect "net" sales over $13 million for Uceris (gross is near $19 million). That number is using $1,800 per script (6 week supply) quoted on a previous presentation. I have factored in a 70% profit margin also stated in presentation.
      That is an increase of $8.5 million net for Uceris over last quarter. I expect both Glumetza and Zegrid sales to increase several million each as well, compared to last quarter.
      I am looking for $91 to $95 million in sales and blowout earnings since their overhead is fairly stable as sales increase.
      Just my opinion.
      Two interesting events were mentioned in the last presentation. First is the possible hiring of 40 more reps for Uceris (based on studies they are concluding regarding sales rep calls). Secondly, the tax issue is leading they to acquire a foreign company to continue to grow the pipeline. Both very thought out plans.
      Good future plans are in the works.

    • Realistically, I would say it is unlikely. The average analysts estimate is $82.9M with a high of $86.4M. To get to $90M it would be 4% above that. On the plus side they continue to beat on earnings 3 quarters in a row; however, the analysts continue to redo their estimates as the revenues increase, so a lot of those beats are baked in. Hey, I would love to see $90M, but I think we may be a quarter away. Personally, I am in for the long term, so eventually I will pick up those gains..

      • 1 Reply to rgchjr1945
      • Analyst are always scared to have their tails in the proverbial wind. They tend to put out low ball conservatives estimates...ever since they got punched in the face after the dotcom nonsense. Now days you rarely see realistic estimates for real growth companies in my opinion. These are the same cats that were crying about Google circa 2004-5, saying it was too expensive at $250.

        Looking at the script numbers, past performance, and trending +/-90mil (give/take 2 mil) is definitely attainable this Qtr. So, we then need to extrapolate of that 90mil what is their take home pay (net income). So, unless they have some crazy one-time charge I'm estimating net income approx 20mil or .26 per share.

        Let's keep the dialog up going into earnings....I would love to hear intelligent debate!

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Kitty...I'm thinking you are right on target for Rev for Q2. The question now is what is net income and how much will they increase the yearly numbers. Here's what I got:

      Here are my numbers for Q2:
      ReV: 89-91Mil
      Net Income: 18-22mil
      EPS: .26-.29

      Raised Guidance for year 2013:
      Net Income 65-75mil
      EPS: 1.00-1.15

      This is a $60 stock hiding in a $24+ stock's body!! Without a doubt!!!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy