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Santarus, AŞ Message Board

  • macs7972 macs7972 Sep 24, 2013 2:52 PM Flag

    Analyst revision is clear sign of Uceris numbers heading north

    There has been one revenue revision in the past 7 days. Last week Q3 analyst estimates avg. was 93.65 million amongst the 5 analysts covering the stock. One analyst revised this week raising the overall avg. to 94.14 million an increase of .5 million. To raise the avg. a half a million dollars this analyst had to raise their estimate exactly 2.5 million. There is only one explanation for the large increase, Uceris sales. As stated on the most recent earnings call, after discounts, Uceris is approximately 900 per Rx. The 2.5 million increase would equate to about 2,777 Rx's. If the bashers on this board don't think the Uceris trend has increased dramatically you will be in for a nice surprise come Nov!

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    • Earningsclue or Siamesekitty is the right person for the estimates
      salesroomega and others please contribute

      • 2 Replies to chinesestockguru
      • The price increases for Glumetza and Zegerid started in June 2013. therefore ithey will impact the 3rd and 4th Quarters. The last two Quarters Glumetza and Zegerid contributed approximately $66M. If we increase that same amount we get Glumetza $45.7M (8%) plus Zegerid $25M (10%) = $70.7M. Cycloset and Fenoglide I don't expect much from $6.3M, other revenue will probably remain the same $0.9M. I believe Uceris will produce $20M - $21M = $97.9M - 98.9M for the year.
        Uceris numbers are July 982 1,097 1,038 1138 = 4,255
        August 1,196 1,084 1,150 (approximate), 1,196 + Aug 30 = 4,626 plus Aug 30
        8,881 plus Aug 30 plus 4 weeks in September. Therefore, to reach 14,234 scripts needed for $20M
        14,234 - 8,881= 5,353 in 5 weeks = average scripts per week needed would be 1,071. The last 5 weeks they've beaten this average number, I don't think this will be a problem, IMO.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • CSG, See my response to Uplatas below. The information comes from Martha L. Hough in response to questions that I forwarded. I don't think it gets better than this, it comes straight from the finance office.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • everything will be flat except uceris, so here is the missing magical number
      July + August scripts as per presentations = 6535

      2Q14 uceris scripts were 11,528

      without Uceris total sales will be $74M

      If you want $94M in sales then $94M - $74M = $20M
      20,000,000/1405 = 14234 scripts needed

      14234 - 6535 = 7699 needed for two weeks of august + 4 weeks of September
      7699 / 6 weeks = average scripts per week needed would be 1285

      july 982 1097 1038 1138 = 4255 ( average 1063 for month of july )
      August 1196 1084 ?? ?? = 2280 + ?? = 4406
      September = 4406
      which gives us 13218

      won't be able to make it......that's why the 40% needed to reach previous highs 8/21 =39.9%

      • 3 Replies to nasdtechanalyst
      • The one thing we can agree on is that Uceris' sales for September will be equal to or slightly less than August. We should end up with 13,800 to 14,200 for the quarter.

        However, Zegerid sales are up month to month and so we will end up growing sales from previous quarter. With the price increase, this is the missing component for a healthy quarterly report in my opinion.

        Glumetza, although there has been a effort by management to reinvigorate sales focus on this drug, all indications are flat quarterly sales is a real possibility.

        Management will be training sales reps (finally) about its competition namely Prednisone and Budesonide and how to handle objections when detailing the GI's about Uceris' benefits. I expect this to payoff in the coming quarters.

        Sentiment: Buy

      • Your forgetting there are 61 days in Aug/Sept, 61-14 = 47 = 6.71 Weeks. The extra .71 week gets about an extra 1000 scripts +/-

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Ok but already SNTS had a haircut and this is priced. Why would it drop further, it has to move upwards only with more than 8 catalysts on the horizon after Q3 2013
        you haven't included the price increase
        with a 10% increase in non-uceris sales $74M will give you $81M + $16M (Q2 2013) = $97M

        but only thing I need confirmation for price increase then kaboom

    • No offense, but you need to consider following the money. The money is leaving the stock, and has been for over a month. What do they know that you don't?

    • Couldn't it also be due to the price increase of Glumetza and Zegerid? Either way, I think we are good with Uceris.