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Santarus, Inc. (SNTS) Message Board

  • creedheed creedheed Sep 25, 2013 12:22 PM Flag

    SMH

    I really don't get all the talk about the upcoming ER. Q3 is O.V.E.R. And, for all intents and purposes, so is FY'13. O.V.E.R. Anybody tell some of you the market is a forward looking, discounting mechanism and the Street already got the '13 story. It was priced in 2 months ago. What the market's telling you now is that it doesn't firmly believe the '14 vs.'13 GROWTH story will be nearly as buoyant vis-a-vis '13 vs.'12. This correction isn't about Q3, or Q4, for that matter. What you should be talking about is how the 2014 comps will stack up to 2013's and how CONSISTENT they will be both, sequentially and YOY. The company comes off a year of easy, low single digit comps with little chance of error and, subsequently, NO hiccups and heads into a year of much more challenging Q comps in the mid .20's (GAAP-ex) for the first 6 months and almost assuredly the entire year. Can they achieve ~20%/+ growth without any hiccups in 2014? Has anyone noticed, rightly or wrongly, the Street has SNTS's long-term growth rate pegged at only 10%? The stock was priced to near perfection at its peak and it's quite obvious, to me anyway, the market no longer sees perfection as a slum dunk, ergo, the price action is reflecting that opinion. Does that mean SNTS can't show "them"? Of course not. If management can produce consistent Q ~20%/+ growth in '14 and further, the stock will be an absolute steal at these prices and lower. If not, well, we'll just have to wait for more info and see how it all shakes out. No manipulation, no bear raid, no conspiracy theories, no big mystery. SMH.

    And, even more unbelievable, is that I've not seen one post even touching on the current income tax rate status and how the inevitable shift toward a more normalized rate will effect future earnings and growth. Again, SMH.

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    • 100% wrong. First of all 2014 growth estimate is 28%. The 10% is a 5 yr estimate and anyone who has a clue knows the 5 yr # is irrelevant. This 5 yr # changes dramatically every year. And the street thinks revenue will be 464 million next year which equates to a $42 share price at the current p/s ratio. So, yes this manipulation coupled with an analyst downgrade. This downtrend is a direct result is a direct result of incompetent weak handed investors like you to nervous to buy shares. Like sheep you follow the herd. And lastly if the analysts think Snts can do 28% imagine what the actual #s will be

    • hey Creed, I understand how you might be shaking your head, but many of us here are also doing the same - that is what makes a market!
      Lets look at this a little more closely – We have a business generating EPS over $2/share and generating $100 million of cash per year. The business has a strong pipeline of new products/indications and has been outstanding in launching new products. It is adding salesreps which will be a major benefit over time. Having more than $200 million cash at the end of FY13, coupled with the potential of a PAR settlement in the range of $150-400 million in 6-8 months – lets say $200 million.
      How much would you pay for that, using the 10% growth of earnings which I think is low?

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to lbl4321
      • Whoa, whoa, whoa, Lbl. Where in the world are you getting "generating" over $2/share in EPS? I hope, and I think this is where many here may be making a BIG mistake in currently valuing the stock, you're at least backing out last Q's $54.9M tax benefit from your calculations. That was a one-time event that had nothing to do with current business ops. If you actually believe the Street is looking at this as currently having a PE of ~15 as appears all over the place, you're sorely mistaken, IMO. I am, always have been, and will continue using GAAP ex-items EPS, which, btw, were always the published estimates until the last Q, now at.70 ttm which puts the current PE at ~30x. Just to put that in perspective, when the stock was at its highs, the PE was 40x based on that number, lofty for even a 20% grower. Based on these numbers, maybe you can understand a bit more where my short-term outlook has come from. If not, like you said, that's what makes a market!

    • I think you are a short trying to stir fear in the investors.
      FY14 , you will have more indications approved and Ruconest, so can you please explain if it will be growth or not......

 
SNTS
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