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Santarus, Inc. (SNTS) Message Board

  • salseroomega salseroomega Oct 10, 2013 10:30 PM Flag

    3rd quarter will beat estimates.

    The price increases for Glumetza 8%, and Zegerid 10%, started in June 2013. therefore those price increases will impact the 3rd and 4th Quarters. The last two Quarters Glumetza and Zegerid contributed approximately $66M. If we increase that same amount by the respective price increases we get Glumetza $45.7M plus Zegerid $25M = $70.7M. Cycloset and Fenoglide I don't expect much from probably $6.3M, other revenue will probably remain the same $0.9M. I believe Uceris will produce $20M - $21M. Therefore, there will be a total of $97.9M - $98.9M for the quarter.

    Uceris numbers are July 982, 1,097, 1,038, 1138 = 4,255

    August 1,196, 1,084, 1,150 (approximate), 1,196 + Aug 30 = 4,626 plus one week and one day
    
8,881 plus 5 weeks and a few days. Therefore, to reach 14,234 scripts needed for $20M
    
14,234 - 8,881= 5,353 in 5 weeks and a few days = average scripts per week needed would be less than 1,071. The last 5 weeks they've beaten this average number, I don't think this will be a problem, IMO.

    Therefore, the 3rd quarter (which was a slow quarter) will beat estimates. SNTS investors will have much to celebrate very soon.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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