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Santarus, Inc. (SNTS) Message Board

  • uplatas uplatas Nov 6, 2013 5:59 AM Flag

    Q3 2013 after DEPO numbers are released

    Analyst expectations eps 0.33 (0.30 ~ 0.37) on sales of $94.45M ( $91.7M - $97.7M)
    my calculation: Net Sales $96.3M and eps north of $0.40

    Uceris $20.8M
    Net Profit Uceris : $18.30M

    $70.7M ( Z + G ) + $6.3M ( C + F ) + $0.9M = $78M
    Net Profit non uceris = $78M x 30% = $54.6M

    Net Profit $18.3 + $54.6 = $73M

    worst case scenario flat sales
    $75M + uceris $21M = $96M

    The price increases for Glumetza 8%
    and Zegerid 10%, started in June 2013.
    The last two Quarters Glumetza and Zegerid contributed approximately $66M.
    If we increase that same amount by the respective price increases we get Glumetza $45.7M plus Zegerid $25M = $70.7M.
    Cycloset and Fenoglide probably $6.3M, other revenue will probably remain the same $0.9M.
    Uceris will produce $21M. Therefore, there will be a total of $97.9M - $98.9M for the quarter.
    Here are my new script numbers for Uceris in the 3rd Quarter.
    Total scripts = 15,019 x $1403 = $21M

    At the Santarus site they've taken down the presentation with the actual numbers. The presentation they have up shows the last number 1,278.

    see salseroomega post

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    • posted by mossa_sagia
      We pay tiered royalties to Cosmo equal to 12% (on annual net sales of each licensed product up to $120.0 million) and 14% (on annual net sales of each licensed product in excess of $120.0 million). Such royalties are subject to reduction in certain circumstances, including in the event of market launch in the U.S. of a generic version of a licensed product. We may also be required to pay Cosmo the following additional commercial milestones for Uceris: a one-time $5.0 million milestone payment upon initial achievement of $75.0 million in annual calendar year net product sales; and a one-time $17.5 million milestone payment upon initial achievement of $150.0 million in annual calendar year net product sales

 
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