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Advanced Photonix Inc. Message Board

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  • surfcircle surfcircle Jun 19, 2004 8:00 AM Flag

    CASH IS BAAAAACK!

    We expect three cents a share and get six, so Cash is back? Revenues increase 36% instead of 40% so it's bad?

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    • There was nothing wrong in this report Surf, the good thing is we got rid of some short timers who have not been around long enough to fully understand the changes, and directions that API is going. I'm sure there will be negative responses to this reply, but we are beyond all the bashing. Let them have there say, it's amusing to say the least. Do some past history on API, and you will see that we have come a long way north since the early days of Leason, and company. Be a bit more patient, add a few more shares, and reap the rewards to come.

      • 2 Replies to abjsaj
      • Why you guys want to change the facts. No investor is buying it. API is going backward and was reported smaller earninig compare to past 2 quarters. API was lifted by acquision and cost cutting and since it didn't do any R&D future products and earning is shrinking.
        This is about the future and current quarter but not about the past. This quarter expectation was 3 pennies and API reported 1, less than past 2 quarters. This trend will continue and next quarter will be even smaller earning. API target is $1 with current earning and less than $1 with future earning.

      • Time for a Friday trading review.

        First the insty type on Thomson disappeared for Thursday and Friday. So we know that this is a sentient type instead of an android and that he/she was aware of the Q release date. So I conclude that "they" are informed and somewhat "close" to what is going on.

        Second, the day's volume of ~150K was really light, considering the potential for trading for less than a blowout report. In fact, in terms of the "old" measures, API closed down 1/64th!

        True, some short termers did exit. IMO, that's great. Less to be around to unload on the next leg up.

        However, most are holding. After the days low, of roughly 1.97, the bottom range of the new API of 2.00 was confirmed as it sas in April, May and now June (see the chart). Two bucks - that it! API ain't goin' any lower now matter how much its bashed! In turn, if one slices out the froth from the Bowser inspired run, then ~2.50 is the current range top.

        So it's a so called higher level accumulation range until an event upsets the prevailing equiblibrium. The next 1Q is probably the 2nd week of August (last such was 8/13/03).

        A T&T M&A event is a wild card. That can happen anytime; I estimate a 100% probability within 12 months, 50% within six months etc.

        A big order event with an accompanying news release? That's what most momo types seem to be looking for. However, I would not bet on it nor would I plan for it.

        So if SSI /TOI lifted API from just below 1/sh to now in the low 2 range, the next acquisition is probably pointing at somewhere in the 3 to 4 range.

        Since T&T is involved, I suspect that it may be a bit larger in scope than either SSI or TOI was. Somewhat consistent with the current share price range which is about three times that which it was when SSI and TOI were courted. Of course, there will be a M&A fee and there may even be a need for additional financing - but this is not unusual.

        As an example. If API were to authorize 3M shares valued at 2.20, that would provide for 6.8M to the "war chest". Add in 1M in cash and the assumption of another 1M in liabilities (plenty of that available), the "war chest" can be up to ~9M. Roughly, that should buy about 6M in new revenues. At current rates, debt would provide excellent leverage, and considering the level and direction of interest rates and the stage of the business cycle, debt should not be ruled out. Hey, but that's T&T's job. <G>

        tug

 
API
0.51+0.02(+3.28%)Aug 28 4:00 PMEDT

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