I have a theory here - I don't think SPPI is as air tight, information-wise, as it has been trading. I've noticed over the last 6 months that SPPI tends to leak a day or so before and sells on news.
If SPPI were a more normal company, positive news would leak sometime this afternoon and earnings will be released EOD, after markets close.
My theory here is that the news is leaking, but there is confusion as to what the 'market' will interpret as good or bad. My hope is that they will just beat analyst estimates, which, I think, will be a positive event and at least risk neutral. Then I think the upside would be upgrades and positive commentary which would propel the price up from it's currently discounted level (i.e. since the company has proven it's ability to execute operationally on sales).
Any long time holders here have any insights? I have to admit I am pretty antsy and am looking forward to tomorrow regardless of the outcome.
Our problem is that the street doesn't believe that SPPI can build Z sales. This is based on past failure by other companies. The break-out will occur when/if SPPI demonstrates that our strategy is working. This is the key.
Agreed Tartia - but do you think hitting the ~6M range would satisfy the street's need for revenue validation?
I'm just trying to put my finger on the sensitivity to the Q4 number - I'm not sure if it's a lynch pin to future sales growth path, or just a smaller piece towards validation that will require quarter after quarter of beating results in order to get street cred. I just don't think the latter requirement is rationale.