This post is only meant for these two, so I don't really want replies from the peanut gallery.
You are the two posters I respect the most. I don't care about any of the other posters, and for all I care, I would love to see them stuck with SPPI at $1 per share. That would make me really smile. But I did enjoy my banter and discussion with the two of you, so I am making a plea to you. My plea is that will you PLEASE re-examine your position in this stock and consider, at the very least, reducing your position.
I know that you both have very nice unrealized gains, and I really really do not want to see both of you lose those gains due to bullheadedness and stubborness on this stock.
Consider exactly what you are betting on at the moment. You are going to risk very nice gains on....on....on what? On Fusilev? On a hail mary apaziquone NDA submission? On RAJ? On what exactly? Where exactly is the value driver going forward? Is it not clear to you that Raj's main objective is personal wealth gain? Do you really believe he cares about you, a shareholder?
Baker Bros: Huge position cut, probably on their way out
Ken Dart: Out
My plea is that you take a rational look at your position on this stock, and make an objective determination as to whether this stock is really worth the risk going forward. Fusilev is the ONLY thing holding the stock up, and are you seriously going to risk all you have in this stock on FUSILEV? Fusilev is going to show another decline this quarter. SPPI has no other viable drugs, and a decreasing Fusilev. And you are going to risk it all on THAT?
I know you will likely not change your mind, and thus either sink or sail with the ship, but I really do not want you to lose everything you have made in this stock. There is nothing wrong with taking your gains and moving on to something else. There are a lot of stocks out there! The shorts are here for a reason; Raj is never going to get any credit from the street. Zevalin is going nowhere. Either is Belinostat. Fusilev is beginning to go away. There is nothing here to be invested in. Fusilev was a really lucky windfall, so lucky that if it wasn't for Fusilev, SPPI would never have seen $10, let alone $15, and would be nowhere near where it is now ($12).
So my hope is that you please re-examine your position. Please consider how much you are betting, and what exactly you are betting it on. And please determine if it is really worth the risk. I know you have long histories with this stock, and a huge emotional attachment to it. But please try to look beyond that.
Well, at least you can't tell me I didn't try. Best of luck no matter what you choose.
16 thumbs down and 2 thumbs up? Golly gee.
Painful lesson for SPPI longs. But I could write a novel about Raj, what is wrong with this company, and why it was destined to fail, and why it is destined to go nowhere anytime soon.
Look at the bright side, we now have answers to MANY of the questions longs were asking the last year:
1) Why was the company not buying back the stock in droves when the price was $10-$12? In fact, why weren't they buying ANY stock after September?
2) Why was the P/E so low?
3) Why was Raj selling boat loads of stock at $12 a share? And why in the world was his "adviser" telling him to do it considering Raj's pump of $5b market cap within 3 years?
4)Why were big players like Tang, Dart, and the Baker Bros exiting this stock?
These once perplexing questions have now been answered.
Pk I got out of this stock at break even a year ago. I always thought your questions about this Raj were worth discussing. My friend got me into this stock and I would point out to him I thought you made good arguments. You prove yourself and me right. Glad I got out a year ago
Thanks...I got out originally last June in the $14s (the day of the Belinostat CUP). Has bought back at varying prices after that point, but liquidated all in the $11.50-$12.00 range in November. Raj is one sneaky slime ball, that's for sure. I hope longs always remember how much $$$$ he made in the last 2 years as a result of Fusilev. He conned shareholders out of millions and millions. And like I had said previously, eventually ALL longs will see the truth of this guy, if they hadn't seen it already. But now we know why the company wasn't buying ANY stock back at $11, and we know why Raj was advised to sell millions of stock at $12 and higher. Everything always makes perfect sense in the end.
pppppkkkkkkkk.........you now post " sad for all involved" BUT YOUR ORIGINAL POST OF THIS VERY THREAD SAYS " i (pk) would love to see all longs stuck with sppi @$1/sh. that would really make me smile" end of pk quote./above.
find the contradiction. now how does one give credibility to such a personality disorder ??
PK you are simply not correct.You suggested get out right BEFORE Q4 earnings were reported, the stock moved higher...You, nor anyone else had any idea that FUS sales would be hit more harder than expected....until right now...I admit, my trust in what was implied by this co and what has actually occured is shaken and I am very disgusted......
There's this thing where you can look at people's user names and email them directly. If you think this is going down the drain, just leave. I refuse to believe that while I sit here at work someone else has a job that is purely trolling on some dumb messageboard. "Paid bashing" would be worthless to any kind of MM. Why do you persist in posting here? If it's a sh-----t stock, just sell and leave, no? Laugh as you leave us in the dust with your immense dragon-from-the-hobbit-esque fortune! Please do! Level 99! Achievement unlocked - forward thinking investor! Congrats, man! But seriously, I should've put your dumb a------ss on ignore years ago. And now, yep!
PK. I listen to every investor presentation more than once. I check the SPPI website frequently for new information. I analyse what Raj says and doesn't say on a daily basis. I follow the rational discussions and arguments on this board almost daily. I evaluate and reevaluate my position daily. My investment in SPPI is not emotional. I would sell tomorrow if I determined it was the right thing to do.
Regarding Risk: I am not invested in SPPI for an short term event. I believe that if Raj swings for the fences 10 times, he may only get one big hit, but he will also get some singles, doubles and triples. Fusilev is a triple, not a home run. I believe that SPPI has enough value divers in play to substantially grow SPPI going forward.
Don't assume I am married to SPPI or complacent about it. I will wait 3, 5, 7 years if necessary as long as I believe that SPPI is on the right path and strategy. I don't agree with you assessment regarding the potential of SPPI's drugs. Just as happened with Fusilev, a big success can come from an unexpected candidate or event. I'll weather the disappointments, because they are part of the process. Still smiling.
I agree with you. I am long term investment as well. I believe that sppi will grow in long term period. Look at the pipeline. At least a few more drugs are coming in a few years. 3 marketed drugs will support that.
I can't estimate how the PPS will react to earnings.
It may very well drop based on Fusilev sales: We been told recently that annual Fus sales are "almost 200mm" based on which we expect q4 Fus net sales to come in at +/- 40mm which is a disappointing 23% drop vs q3, or even more disappointing 30% from the 57mm q2. It's also puzzling that Raj is telling us that sales are both growing and NOT discounted. I'd like to see more transparency, for sure.
On the other hand, implied guidance for the year is that we are still on track for "more than 300mm pro-forma sales". My math on this is as follows:
Q1 rev: 56.7mm
Q2 rev: 68.7mm
Q3 rev: 69mm including 6mm sept FOL
Total first 3 quartes FOL sales: 37mm (also includes sept FOL sales), so excluding Sep sales : 31mm
Total proforma rev Q1-Q3: 228.4mm.
This implies revenue guidance of $71mm for Q4, which is exactly what Adam F wrote a few months back in a not very flattering article.
Now, my question is what are the various scenarios by which we can achieve 71mm?
a) Fus sales are well over 40mm which is great, provin that Sagent is not the threat that we expected
b) there is a huge increase either Z or FOL sales, which would be very remarkable and I think would far outweigh any negative news from declining Fus numbers.
c) 300mm guidance is not met, which makes me wonder why this would have been reiterated recently.
In any case, to achieve 300mm annual revenue it seems lime we have to achieve 71mm q4 revenue.
To do this either means that Fus sales have remained stronger that what we've been told, or that other product sales have grown so much that they have more than compensated for any decline in Fus sales.
I'd love to get any thoughts on my math - we really need to make assumptions based on the crumbs of information that we're given. In any case it will be an exciting earnings statement! I'm looking forward to it!
(I've also been in since the 5's, not interested in trading. I have a few thousand shares which I'm holding for the long haul)
Thanks, aaron, for the analysis - hoping the Z sales are significantly higher due to the removal of the radioactivity monitoring requirement. The first full quarter of Fol sales under SPPI with addition of Ful may surprise us as well. The targets you set aren't so high.
HONORABLE JUSTICE RAJ: QUESTION: how do you plead ??? guilty, not guilty, no lo contendre ???
DEFENDANT pk : ANSWER: IM BROKE $$$ CAN I BE ASSIGNED A PUBLIC DEFENDER ?????
HONORABLE JUSTICE RAJ; NO BAIL,, ADJOURN MATTER FOR 2 MONTHS AND GET THIS WEASEL A PUBLIC DEFENDER. make it a female atty cause this defendant is a whiner.........................
I only request that we find truth. SEC needs to get its act together.
1. How can investors be fooled in every single investor conf call for last 2 years ...when Raj answers to every analyst question that "Fusilev sales will not be impacted by generic leucovorin" ?
2. How can Raj not talk about material issue like the increasing gross to net adjustments in q3, q4 due to increased consolidation of clinics to hospitals ?
3. How can Raj say Fusilev sales will grow and then within a month come back and state it will degrow by 50% and the 1st quarter degrowth by 70%
4. How can Raj feed misleading information to public while he continues to sell his stock ....$8.8 million of it in last year
5. Shorts knew this from the very beginning. The short racket (not sure how much was a pre-planned scheme and if any company insider was in cahoots) cost the longs $80m as they based their valuation based on misleading information fed by Raj to public. Then Raj instead of announcing a big investor call, releases 8k to create a panic and opportunity for short squeeze by saying Fusilev for Q1 will be 70% down. This is a guy who in December before his stock sales was stating fusilev will grow in Q1.
I hope there are indictments in this SCAM.,