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Spectrum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • ouch_yikes ouch_yikes Mar 19, 2013 12:50 PM Flag

    I don't care WHO is at tomorrow's conference...

    IMO, but they have major explaining and elaborating to do....To go from that Q4 earnings and quite bullish CC... to this horror show of a stock?!?!?..... well, it's ineffable...beyond words of description....

    Tartia? You still grinning?

    I am livid....And If I don't see a turnaround(like their supporting their own stock at these atrocious levels), I won't hesitate to sell for a huge loss and make it up elsewhere............

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    • I look a it this way: If a majority of hospitals switch to Leucovorin all at the same time, the distributors have more inventoty than they need to support their customers. They need to work off that excess inventory before they order more Fusilev from Spectrum.

      To make things worse, the minimum stock level they need to maintain at all times to fill clinics' orders during the re-order period is lower than it was when hospitals were also buying. That also needs to be sold before a new Fusilev order to spectrum is placed.

      This inventory draw-down process can last a quarter or two - but order flow should then stabilize at about 75 % of the old volume (prior to the hospitals' switch to generic L).

      It's an inventory bubble, nothing more.

      As far as the disconnect between the information from the earnings call and the update a few days later... that makes sense if the heads-up from the distributors came after the earnings call. Unless there was some channel stuffing going on (I doubt it) to make the year end earnings look good, we should be back to (new) normal sales volumes by the third quarter (my guess).

      Looking forward to 2014:
      The decrease in Fusilev revenues should be compensated for by (a) greater Folotyn and Zevalin revenue, as well as (b) Belinostat revenue, assuming it gets approved and (c) somewhat recovered Fusilev revenues as a by product of combination therapy with Folotyn. I anticipate these revenue improvements because of the increased size/capacity of the sales force.

      As a byproduct of the downward adjustment of Fusilev order flow, accounts receivable should be collected faster than new ARs are generated. Cash on hand will increase and accounts receivable will decrease. This frees up money for other purposes.

      As the new drugs come online (belinostat, the new lingand drug, and - dare I hope - apaziquone, Spectrum will be a well diversified company that does not depend on any single drug for its well being. I'm happy to own this stock.

    • and that is just what I did and have been trying to say.. beyond livid I just accepted the reality that WE were lied to and the ending will not be a pretty picture.. learned to take the loss and live to fight another day along time ago.. I have been quiet today but I feel for all those believers.. this is a ship gone astray and one would think if us little guys are mad how to you think the bigwig institutions are taking it?

    • FWIW, there is a whole bunch of orders on the Bats Exchange. They have ranged anywhere from 400/500/2200 and up. Just go on your Yahoo Page, click on Order book and at the bottom you can click on Bats Exchange and then put in the SPPI symbol when you get to the Bats Exchange page. I've been watching Bats all morning. Perhaps our cries for SPPI to buy or Raj, et al to buy have been heard!!!

      Sherry

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to sherrysgone
      • I dont think so. Anyway just wait and watch this stock unwind for the moment. Belinostat news at ASCO will ignite a rally in this stock and it will see double digits.
        Dumb shorts on this message board can keep spewing garbage and find comparisons with AFFY this is not and will never be an AFFY.
        Stop looking at the bidxask for a while go enjoy your life - SPPI may be important but it isn't everything except for a few sad shorts who are shorting some 50 shares at a time.
        Enough said.

        Sentiment: Buy

    • Ouch, Yes I'm still grinning and puckering.

      It looks to me like the Distributers blindsided SPPI. The story is not yet told. Why were WK #s up for January versus Q4? Is the problem a huge drop off in sales or extreme caution by the distributers? If this is really just an adjustment then this stock reaction is BS. I will admit it puts Raj in a bad position credibility wise, but I am not sure how much this is his fault. I will wait for the dust to clear. Holding strong at this point and yes still grinning (a little).

      • 2 Replies to tartiaboy
      • I believe Raj's saying at bod meetings..."better to be lucky than good". Unfortunately, this business was built on luck...

      • Tartiaboy, not knowing the sudden drop off in sales may not be Raj's fault as you say. I'll give you that. However, if he was not sure about the issue, he should not have made all those lofty claims. I believe that's his fault. For you and me, it may be OK but a CEO is simply showing how incompetent he is by making such statements. And to make things worse, he has not yet apologized nor has had a CC open to all shareholders to explain what happened. To add insult to injury, he had a private CC with CS.

        Well, if he is not fired by the BOD, then they are just as complicit in this entire mess. I think a decent human being with a modicum of conscience would've resigned by now. Can't expect that from these greedy Bas*#$@ these days.

        Still frowning

        Sentiment: Hold

    • Raj has been complaining about the hugely undervalued PPS. If I was Raj, I would spend some of my money from the stock sales last year to make open market purchases. He could easily afford to buy back 50,000-100,000 shares. In fact, anything less than 100,000 shares would not mean much at all. He ought to be buying a million shares to show his commitment and perhaps then he might be able to win back some of my trust.

      Put your money where your mouth is Raj or just resign and get the hell away from SPPI.

      Sentiment: Hold

    • This is a fair reaction. You've been a supporter and defender of this stock. Frankly, I had to get out as per a prior post because I didn't trust management. My final straw was the day they announced the Allos acquisition in tandem with the poor drug test results. Funny how those were timed to be on the same day when only a few weeks earlier Raj claimed to not know the test results. I just kept getting the funny feeling that shareholders would always be the last to know.

    • At this point, I just don't know what they can say tomorrow to make the situation better. There isn't really anything. But I will be PI$$ED if they just come out with the standard every thing is great presentation that we heard all through last year. They need to do something different and I doubt they will.

      Outside of Raj stepping down, I don't know what other statement can be made to change the street's mind about this company. Potential is great. If that potential turns into new product launches and revenues that is even better. But if it never manifests into an increase in share price what is the point? The street is not going to attach any premium to the potential of this company with Raj in charge. It's that simple.

      • 2 Replies to bandit22_2000
      • Volume is back up again today, doesn't look like there is much optomism going into tomorrow.

      • What gets the street excited is expected fantastic growth...THAT is what creates those huge multiples in ALL those other normal trading profitable biotechs. What REALLY suxcs is that this biotech SAW growth in 2010 and 2011 and again in 2012! It SAW tremendous Y-O-Y growth and yet it's stinkin' stock never got any higher than an 11+ PE...
        To those who think AF was right, no, in fact, he was NOT! He has been more wrong than ANY follower. He knocked the biotech EVERY chance he could get over those years...and, all the while that he was saying "the party is over", it WASN"T!...There was one more year of tremendous growth that occurred....

        So today, the current stock price, and giving it a less than normal 3(X) sales multiple, its market cap is currently under the lowest, bottom range of the latest drastically reduced earnings estimates forecast($160M),and I am not even including their cash or licensing revs in the mix, nor their pipeline, nor their NDA's, etc..It's as if the market is ALWAYS going to give it the severest of discounts(and I mean BRUTAL undervaluations!) to whatever times it is in....Should they experience a consistently robust and quite long great era of earnings growth? Don't expect much of a PE....Should they experience perhaps a temporary earnings hiccup? Well, we are seeing the kind of response currently......

 
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