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Spectrum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • joesolomon333 joesolomon333 Apr 21, 2013 12:24 AM Flag

    Valuation

    Does anyone know of another BioTech with a Measly $400 million market cap with $180 MM in annual revenues? Much less with 3 new FDA filings in the next 12 months for cancer drugs with an annual revenue run rate of more than a BILLION Dollars per year. And a 10 to 12 drug pipeline behind it including the two SP drugs for breast cancer etc.

    Just curious? Let me know.....

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    • The estimates are extremely unpredicatble because of Fusilev's declining sales. The current valuation is on the high side if Fusilev declines further.

    • joesoloman - your 180 M annual revenue is debateable.
      analyst estimates for this are as low as 128 M and for 2014 as low as 148 M.

      3 new FDA filings next 12 months ? Believe it when I see it.

      10-12 drug pipeline = cash burning. Until something in the pipeline gives good reason to expect a profitable product it will just be a drag on the financials of SPPI

      Current market cap of SPPI says the pipe is empty of hope

      It is what it is

      • 2 Replies to chargerfanus2003
      • To be fair, your analysts ALSO have Revenue estimates as HIGH as $198MM and $253MM for 2013 and 2014, respectively.

        And the average Analysts' estimates indicate that SPPI's cash and cash equivalents will Still be around $127 MM as of 6/30 from operations and will increase thereafter through 2014. Even while continuing to conduct studies, develop the 10 to 12 drug pipeline etc.

        Of course, with significant cash, SPPI may also still use cash to buyback shares, acquire another drug or company etc. or reissue shares previously repurchased to Topo for Belinostat payments.

      • "analyst estimates for this are as low as 128 M and for 2014 as low as 148 M."

        That's the lowest estimate. The highest are 198M and 253M. The median #s are. 169M and 209M.

        "Current market cap of SPPI says the pipe is empty of hope" I agree that SPPI is getting no valuation for the pipeline. I don't agree that is warranted.

        "3 new FDA filings next 12 months ? Believe it when I see it." Give it time.

    • joe.............exactly on target. Unfortunately, the bash crowd has politiced hard against Raj for years who as CEO is an easy target without people responding for him. As he has said, "I don't know of any other way to respond then to perform as best I can". Here is an evil CEO if you listen to his bashers. Even though he took a bankrupt company 10 years ago to now with 2 years of profitability, with 200 employees in a tough economy, with 3 life saving/extending drugs on the market, 3 new drugs for approval and about 10 in the pipleine. Has he made mistakes, yes, but so does every leader ..... .with all things considered this is a good investment......Raj or no Raj. But thanks to Raj and the team he put together.

      • 1 Reply to no2crooks
      • Raj not evil, but

        arrogant , he cares not for the company or shareholders at this point. If he did he would step down
        inept, he has no clue on his own supply line
        deceptive, he holds bad new until he can release good news and he holds bad news until it can't be held any more
        greedy, his compensation speaks for itself

        I bet your "good folks" who post here are ones that have ignored signs of problems during the bleed from 17 to 7. Good at keeping their blinders firmly in place.

    • you forgot to apply "liar discount", which will take the valuation to near ZERO. Also you forgot to put their annual cost. Remember they will be burning cash which means they will likely dilute your stake. My guess is they will raise $80m at $4 per share

    • Joe, unfortunately none of the replies will answer your question. Most will not address specific drugs. Raj may affect near term valuation. Drug approvals and revenue increases will carry the stock up or down.
      How are you feeling about odds of Belinostat approval?

    • I have come to believe after and still long for many years now, it is the "face of the company". It appears no one has any confidence in Raj. It is like a cancer with this company. IMO, the only near thing that will move the current PPS higher is Raj steps down as Pres/CEO and is replaced with a veteren with a proventrack record and close to Wall Street or there is a buy out offer at least 2X current PPS.

      • 2 Replies to asht5333
      • Dear Ash, Unfortunately, I agree and have said so. We need Raj playing with molecules and meeting with the FDA. That high-pitched voice seems to have the same effect as nails on a chalkboard or a dentist's drill. Keller is an improvement currently, but long term? Just have not seen or heard him enough to judge him. I think the "wrong numbers" were a problem Keller should have seen and corrected. asap. Do not buy he's new and didn't want to make waves. He had to know an updated system was vital and should have been strong enough to stand up to Raj about it. That's a major concern, is Keller strong enough to be a leader?
        Even if Kellerr is the CEO, will Raj still be calling all the shots? Don't think Raj was guilty of fraud.He is only guilty of being Raj. He's happy, excited, and passionate. If he had known Fusilev sales would slow dramatically, when leucovorin was available, he would not have been so happy.

      • 'veteran with a proven track record' is a bit cliche. You should not be so quik to fall for it for the sake of 'veteran'. People move around for all sorts of reasons. Whoever replaces Raj (whenever he retires, and I do believe by the end of the year he will at least be 'emeritus') will have is own history and motives. Just like ANY personnel move when you evaluate him you should look at more than jsut the company he comes from and the years of experience he has.

        Some people try to step upto the next level and fail. Some people move laterally after being promoted too high. Yes, some move and are wildly successful. Do not prejudge that Raj is a shmuck and everything he does is dirt jsut because you are frustrated at the share price, and don't prejudge the next guy either.

        Look at JCPenny, what did that 'veteran' with a 'proven track record' accomplish? He destroed a Fortune 500 company in record time.... Just sayin' Look a little deeper when you throw #$%$ like that out.

 
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