1. $143 MILLION in cash, cash equivalents, a/r as of 12/31/12. ALOT of cash;
2. $180MM plus in Revenue run rate with THREE FDA approved drugs;
3. Fusilev, Folotyn, Zevalin all approved and revenue generating;
4. Extensive and deep 10 to 15 additional drug pipeline including Apaziquone, Belinostat, SP etc.;
5. Short interest which STILL needs to buy almost 50% of the ENTIRE float to cover their position;
6. Institutional Ownership exceeding 75% of the total outstanding shares;
7. Stock Buyback Plan in effect for up to $100 MM;
8. Possible synergies between Fusilev, Folotyn and Belinosta for Mucositis;
9. Possible acquisition of Topo which could add Worldwide rights to Belinostat like Zevalin;
10. Belinostat data approved for early release by ASCO prior to the late June Conference;
11. Renazorb had favorable Phase I results and is moving forward;
12. MSN already reported that various inquiries have been made by Big Pharma regarding buyout opportunities with tremendous interest from Japan;
13. FDA agreement for Apaziquone with a new NDA filing and concurrent Phase III study ( A BILLION dollar drug opportunity);
14. THREE new FDA NDA filings in the next 12 MONTHS; and
15. A piddly $400 MM market cap. How ridiculous is that in the BATTLE to BEAT CANCER.
I like the facts in general, but they are a bit one sided.
1. Yes, the company ahs this much cash, but until the lawsuits are resolved will probably be setting aside a modest reserve.
3. All are approved and generate revenue, although it is unclear how profitable each one is.
4. I like several of the drugs in the pipeline but one should judge such things based on quality rather than quantity
5. Stop the excessive focus on short interest and the dream of any kind of short squeeze. During the Ides of March TENS of MILLIONS of shares traded, simple enough to cover if there is bad news. Hopefully things will go well for us instead.
7. I rate the buyback as mostly a poison pill to delay lowball buyout offers until the company can build more demonstrable value as they have only rarely purchased shares. For other reasons I have previously posted I expect not to use cash for buybacks for the rest of the year at least.
9. TOPO will be interesting
10. Belino data release is TANTALIZING.
11. Phase 1 is nice, but lots of drugs do ok in ph1.
12. potential inquiries about buyouts are nice and all, but until someone visits the company for due diligence its pie in the sky.
13. Apaz path forward is interesting, but until we learn more about the new study, impact of removing AEs with blood in urine from older studies, and required timing, I still rate it as so-so.
14. I DO expect us to file an NDA every 6-10 months, but that is 3 in 18-24 months not 3 in 12.
15. Market Caps are all about perception. Concrete results change perception. That is why I find #10 very tantalizing.
Astro, when looking at days to cover for shorts, how is using March volume a good benchmark? If 25 mil shares were bought in a small window, it would not be comparable to the March fiasco. It's not as if millions of people would suddenly put in sell orders at market price. It's apples and oranges.
If Apaziquone is approved while the PPS is severely depressed, a short squeeze will likely commence.
The fact of note is that Spectrum is a far stronger company today than it was two years ago when the PPS was in the 7s. Today's PPS is a distortion that will be corrected to the benefit of all who are paying attention. Still smiling. TTB.
Since Joe began posting 10/23/2012
Big incentive to pump till the cows come home.
Raj discount is 80% on any potential good news at this point.
Did you forget when Raj announced world record earnings? The stock dropped 14% that day. You think good news will win here? Shorts are not exiting in any great numbers. The hex is still on with Raj in the game.
Thamk you for your very interesting post. Concerning fact 10, if I may comment, I would say Belinostat data before May 15, i.e. before the release of ASCO 2013 abstracts. That's why I think Belief trial data (according to ASCO policy and exception only "limited information") could be released with first quarter earnings.