good stuff. hope weekend was well. just a few things -its hard to evaulate weather into any forecasting. ie i could make the argument that yoy would be better since hurricanes, etc, the seasonality downturn effected potential sales last yr. its really a metrix that could be argued either way. if need be management could use it as a crutch either way. a greater overall indication would come this week from the main retailers wmt etc. - look at the first 6 months of the yr which bleed into the 2nd quarters numbers. hardware, software, and accessories up 21% for first 6 months of the yr. then id breakdown those #'s to include july to get an estimate. however thats industry as a whole, not gme specific. the major rollout would be psp. and ds. now thats yoy for those products over 181% (alas the rub is the comps for handhelds was easy so it makes the 181% less impressive). And pc was down 10% yoy. you could estimate that for present 1/4 battlefield and wow would fortell a more impressive pc sales for the later months. again a potential plus for gme, but its tangible. the main issue with gme is always software. id be more concerned with the yoy comps for 3rd/4th quater since the must have lineup is lacking yoy. id think the future guidance will be the reason it goes either way. thats why the hardware forecasts could make up the slack. im not sure the software will be there to support it. to your point, the presale reservation is normal, it does not go towards earned revenue. - i look at technicals for a confirmation but as you know a chart never bght a stk. its the news and emotion that drives it. plus the dma will be different, thats the fun thing with using.
you raise valid points and concerns. i doubt id still be in by earnings date, but hope you get your entry. best of luck
The deposits on consoles are unearned revenues. Even if the company booked them as revenues, this would have to be disclosed. Keep in mind that these are deposits, not sales, e.g., Cash debit $50 Unearned Revenue $50
when the actual sale is made Cash $350 Unearned Revenue $50 Sales $400
"presales: not sure on this, but is it typical to pre-sell a console 3 months in advance? Could they be doing this to bolster the current quarter?"
Query me this: If your boss offered to pay you today for money to be earned next quarter, without any discount, would you take it? And would it be fair for me to infer from your making this election (for which you would be absurd not to) that your finances were in jeopardy. Food for thought.
Dont forget to account for the $50 deposits for the consoles, which gives the company the time value of money. Not sure how they book this in terms of accounting, but, in any event, it is ideal for a growing company to have interest-free money to grow with. I am confident that some of this will be booked as profit this quarter. Does anyone have the scoop on this?