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GameStop Corp. Message Board

  • johntaguim johntaguim Nov 11, 2007 8:19 AM Flag

    Is it going to be a down Day/Week next week - Any other views?

    I would figure in another 500 point down week. What do you all think?

    Negative but calls it as I sees it. With Walmart/Macy's/Kohl's/Homedepot reporting I wish you luck if you play the market this coming up week. Too bad I don't know how to play with options because that's the only way to play this market...for now.

    First victim for Monday Etrade:
    The company said that its total exposure to collateralized-debt obligations of asset-backed securities and second-lien securities at Sept. 30 was about $450 million in amortized cost, including about $50 million of AAA-rated asset-backed CDOs that were downgraded to below investment grade.
    E-Trade also said that the deterioration since Sept. 30 will likely result in write-downs that exceed previous expectations, and that investors should no longer expect earnings levels to be achieved.
    The electronic brokerage, citing a series of industry-wide ratings-agency downgrades, announced that it observed continued declines in the fair value of its $3 billion asset-backed securities portfolio

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    • I see you failed to even look at any of the other information that refutes that view. Typical. There are several theories why the depression happened. The fact that you highlight only the one that fits your mindset shows to me that you are closed minded and unable to see new ideas. People that are set in their beliefs regardless of the other facts in the world (think Ron Paul) tend to become marginable characters after their fad view moves onto the next fad.


      the link also supports my view and probably 30 other views that's the problem with wikipedia it is not based on fact but on "feelings" and "views".

      BTW: You do see the Gold price/oil price/gas price/ the strentgh of the dollar today right? You know the move I called last week and am making money on when everyone else was saying oil was going to $100, gold to $1000 and the dollar to zero. Doomsayers will lose you tons of money if you submit to their seductive call.

    • From your link it sounds like todays FED:

      Austrian theorists who wrote about the Depression include Hayek and Murray Rothbard, who wrote "America's Great Depression" in 1963. In their view, the key cause of the Depression was the expansion of the money supply in the 1920s that lead to an unsustainable credit driven boom. In their view, the Federal Reserve, which was created in 1913, shoulders much of the blame.

      One reason for the monetary inflation was to help Great Britain, which, in the 1920s, was struggling with its plans to return to the gold standard at pre-war (World War I) parity. Returning to the gold standard at this rate meant that the British economy was facing deflationary pressure.[8] According to Rothbard, the lack of price flexibility in Britain meant that unemployment shot up, and the American government was asked to help. The United States was receiving a net inflow of gold and inflated further in order to help Britain return to the gold standard. Montagu Norman, head of the Bank of England, had an especially good relationship with Benjamin Strong, the de facto head of the Federal Reserve. Norman pressured the heads of the central banks of France and Germany to inflate as well, but unlike Strong, they refused.[9] Rothbard says American inflation was meant to allow Britain to inflate as well, because under the gold standard, Britain could not inflate on its own.

      In the Austrian view it was this inflation of the money supply that led to an unsustainable boom in both asset prices (stocks and bonds) and in capital goods. By the time the Fed belatedly tightened in 1928, it was far too late and, in the Austrian view, a depression was inevitable.

      The artificial interference in the economy was a disaster prior to the Depression, and government efforts to prop up the economy after the crash of 1929 only made things worse.

    • you want to read check out you favorite source of information on what caused the depression. You may find that your view is only one of many on the causes of the decline.:

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression

      I have heard Ron Paul say the same things year after year since 1980's and they get more stupid and cranky each year.

      BTW There is a school of thought that Britians try to return to pre WW1 gold standard started the great depression. Hey isn't that what Ron Paul wants to do... hmmm if he wins we can see if that was the reason we had the great depression. Even money says it will cause a great decrease in prices and asset vaules. But hey you cares how much the home they worked for all their lives is worth anyway. It will now be backed by Gold....ha. goofy people and their goofy gold standard crap. Anyone ever try to eat a gold bar? How much will that gold be worth when your really hungry. Farmers will be the new barons not the gold bugs.

    • wikipedia??? HA, HA,HA anyone that takes that source as the only soucre of information is seriously uneducated.

      I said the CONTROLLED rise in prices due to the change in demand and supply. What part of that do you eqate with Zimbabwe? or post WW1 Germany. they have/had runaway inflation The two are not the same thing. All inflation is not bad. If you can not get past that truth then there is no reason debating this. That's like saying all beer is bad because you drink until you die. Learn some critical thinking. CONTROLLED inflation is a sign of a growing economy.

      The depression was caused by many things. Each adding onto the other with a negative feedback loop.
      If you want to blame the FED that's your view. Others have different views. Some are more plausible than others.

      Ron Paul supporters are just as nutty as he is it appears.

    • Almost the entire post is so ridiculous and terribly wrong. I do not know where to start.

      Lets make it easy: wikipedia -
      Inflation is measured as the growth of the money supply in an economy, without a commensurate increase in the supply of goods and services.

      Inflation is the excess printing of currency. It is a tax on the the society, by printing of money in excess of revenue received.

      "So yes the rise in prices in oil/gold/gasoline etc is GOOD NEWS. "

      Totally laughably absurb, so Zimbabwe economy is the best in the world. The Weimar Republic was the strongest in German history.

      Why talk about something you do not understand? The depression was caused by the FED allowing easy credit which caused over investment over simulation in everything. When WW1 ended there was a contraction of demand, but the economy was highly leveraged (inflated). There was a sell off in the stock market and subsequent bank runs and leveraged failures. Subsequently, Franklin D. Roosevelt and his New Deal Congress--with assistance from the Supreme Court--seized gold coins, gold bullion, and United States gold certificates from common Americans; terminated the domestic redemption of all currency in gold; and outlawed and repudiated all private and public contracts and other debts requiring payment in gold (so-called "gold-clause contracts").

      The gold seizure of the 1930s began as a "suspension of specie payments" throughout the banking system. At that time, Americans could redeem Federal Reserve Notes ("FRNs") in gold or so-called "lawful money" at Federal Reserve Banks, and in gold at the United States Treasury. And Federal Reserve Banks were required to maintain a 40% reserve of gold on their issues of FRNs. The problem, of course, was that even a 40% reserve was woefully inadequate in the face of the near-complete collapse of credit and public confidence in the banking system. The Federal Reserve's merely fractional reserves could not redeem and cash out all the paper currency and bank accounts that noteholders and depositors sought to liquidate in gold. Therefore, to remain in operation, the banks needed to terminate redemption of FRNs in gold.

    • So yes the rise in prices in oil/gold/gasoline etc is GOOD NEWS. It means our economy and the world economy is GROWING. "
      Are you kidding? Rising prices are good? For who? The consumer will cut back and / or go bankrupt.


      A slow steady rise in prices is called inflation. Inflation is what makes not only prices rise of goods but also assets. So inflation is good for your home vaule, your stocks, your bonds, etc. Inflation occurs during periods of growth due to a rise in demand and/or a shortage of supply. This imbalnace causes prices to rise or inflate.

      The opposite of inflation is deflation which is the decrease in prices due to an increase in supply or a decrease in demand. Deflation will cause your gas/food bills to decline but it will also cause your stocks, house, bonds and wages to decline. Deflation if not stopped will cause massive depression.

      You want a economy with controlled inflation that is a growing economy. When gas prices fall it is a sign of a slowing economy. When they rise it is a sign of a growing economy. If wages keep upto or beat the rate of inflation wealth is created.

      The housing market is going thru a period of deflation (how's that helping the economy), tech by its very nature is a delfationary business ( how did that deflation help INTC)

      Controlled inflation is what keeps the economy pumped. Using Ron Paul gold standard vodoo economics then you will never have growth unless you find a new gold mine or the vaule of gold will go up due to its limited supply until only the very rich will be able to have it like the dark ages, or bartering will come back in style as other forms of exchange will have to be found.

      No inflation = no growth = deflation= depression=no middle class= misery for the majority of the human population.

      A little inflation like a little greed is good for the soul.

      Rising prices may seem troubling but they are a sign of economic growth which is a good thing. Spending is not cut back it is transferred into other areas like the oil sector. People are still spending at the same level as before they are just buying different things. The only time you have a recession is when employment falls and people can not buy anything which starts the cycle of deflation due to a drop in demand. Inflation does not cause a recession in the overall economy it causes a shift into different sections of the economy.


      BTW: if your neighbor says he is going to kill you when he gets a gun, does everything in his power to get the gun, keeps reminding you that he is going to kill you as soon as he gets that gun, destroys your property at every oppurtunity, and picks fights with you whenever he can and says over and over that he hates you and wishes you dead so that he can take what you have will you let him get the gun?

      If so than by all means let's let Iran get those nukes. A sane person/country does not allow its enemies to obtain the means to destroy them.

    • The dollar is about 200% stronger than it was in 1980 compared to the other world currency adjusted for inflation. "

      Please provide a source for this false statement.


      For even more perspective, since 1980 when the U.S. embarked on �cowboy capitalism� � meaning Ronald Reagan�s policies of low tax rates, deregulation, free trade, price stability, and massive entrepreneurship that lead to Schumpeterian gales of creative destruction � the widest profit margins in the world have attracted investment inflows from the four corners of the globe. Consequently, the dollar has appreciated 200 percent over the past 24 years.

      Adjusted for inflation, the price of gold during this period has dropped from $1,264 an ounce to today�s $430, a decline of 66 percent for the yellow metal. So much for inflation. As for wealth-creation and the health of American business, the S&P 500 stock market average increased 950 percent during this long period.

      http://www.nationalreview.com/kudlow/kudlow200411160821.asp

      News Flash: Central Banks are selling Gold as fast as they can at these levels. They will buy it back at about 730 or so.

      Find your own link. check under the gold agreement. also check the outflows from the CB. You need to dig but the information is there behind the scene.

    • "Destruction of their nuclear ambitions, the collapse of their economy, deposing their mullahs and the stopping of Iran funding and exporting terrorism into the middle east."

      Never going to happen. They are surrounded by nuclear countries and they will get them. It is a matter of time. You are better off believing in Santa Claus. Israel, NK and Pakistan have nukes. Iran will get them.

      "The dollar is about 200% stronger than it was in 1980 compared to the other world currency adjusted for inflation. "

      Please provide a source for this false statement.


      News Flash: Central Banks are selling Gold as fast as they can at these levels. They will buy it back at about 730 or so.

      Please provide a source for this false statement.

      "As far as oil and gold price being good for stocks I seem to remember that about 20% of the S&P are made up of oil companies and miners."

      The US consumption based economy is in trouble with high oil. This is nothing to cheer about, unless you are short retailers (like me).

      "So yes the rise in prices in oil/gold/gasoline etc is GOOD NEWS. It means our economy and the world economy is GROWING. "
      Are you kidding? Rising prices are good? For who? The consumer will cut back and / or go bankrupt.

    • France, Britain, China "won" WW II,

      No they lost. It took the entry of the USA into the figth to win the war. France, Britian and China were beaten to an inch of their lives. Their armies were crushed, their infrastructure was blasted into bits, their navy was sunk, their currency was trash. The USA Marshall Plan rebuilt Europe and the Chicoms took over China after they beat the weaken democratic foes that fled to Tawian. That is not victory that is survival.

      What is a win for USA in Iran? Destruction of their nuclear ambitions, the collapse of their economy, deposing their mullahs and the stopping of Iran funding and exporting terrorism into the middle east. That would be a good start.

      The dollar is about 200% stronger than it was in 1980 compared to the other world currency adjusted for inflation. That is not weakness. Gold and oil's price performance can be better explained by demand/supply than fleeing the dollar. There is less supply/more demand as the world comes online and new middle classes are created. Demand for cars/trucks/plants/airplanes/ etc etc and demand for rings/necklaces/ etc etc. I suppose the fact that the recent uptick in gold just haapen to fall on India's annual festival is just a happenstance.

      News Flash: Central Banks are selling Gold as fast as they can at these levels. They will buy it back at about 730 or so.

      As far as oil and gold price being good for stocks I seem to remember that about 20% of the S&P are made up of oil companies and miners. So yes the rise in prices in oil/gold/gasoline etc is GOOD NEWS. It means our economy and the world economy is GROWING. If prices fall past normal supply/demand price points that would be bad for our economy and the world economy because that would mean we are contracting. So the rise of OIL to $70 from $10 was good news, the rise of Gold was good news. The last week's rise was speculation and not good news for the oil companies which FELL and the miners which fell.

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