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GameStop Corp. Message Board

  • flyerd1 flyerd1 Nov 20, 2007 4:18 PM Flag

    My Foreceast/Recession issue/Hardware growth/Insider selling/Recap of "Reality"

    Today I sold Jan(09) $60's @$16/17 & $65's @$19/20.50 (all the contracts today); looking for more @$18/$22 respectfully. Early X-Mas present (great opportunity) ;-)

    Shorts got lucky mkt is so nervous. I'm sure they'll try to claim the "insider selling (scary) actually meant "something". It didn't, here's PERSPECTIVE on insider selling at gme:
    http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_G/threadview?bn=24951&tid=15766&mid=15766

    Then they'll yell "high p/e retail comparison". Again, that's not it. Here's a post irt being "a Retailer":
    http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_G/threadview?bn=24951&tid=15227&mid=15227

    Like I just said, the mkt's "very nervous" & looking for "any" reason to justify the fear. Not upping fwd guidance to the level "analysts wanted" is part of what the fearful mkt used to get scared & sell. The outlooks still great; expect multiple upgrades/reiterations over the rest of the qtr (I don't like analysts but people like hearing upgrades). Let the shorts keep spouting frivolous drivel; it makes them happy. They're typical bandwagon cheerleaders.

    My fwd price tgts (posted in late Sep/early Oct post) still look good:
    http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_G/threadview?bn=24951&tid=15077&mid=15077

    Here's something the shorts seem to keep failing to understand irt a possible recession: "No matter what" people will forgo other things iot have the newest, coolest electronics. In other words, even the poorest people will continue to buy video games, ipods, flat panel TV's etc because it makes them "feel better" and wealthier. They'll even cut back on food spending. Don't believe me? My Father-in-law works for the census bureau & is always telling me (without specific names or addresses of course)about going into peoples homes to interview them & seeing that the very poor, who seem to be "just getting by" on food stamps, unemployment, etc. still have a new 52+" plasma TV with a PS3 or X-box360 or Wii hooked up to it & are playing new games as their source of entertainment. Maybe it's just as much a vice as smoking, drinking, etc and maybe it's a terrible example of the state of our priorities as a society... but it's "reality".

    Here's more food for thought "&" nice charts to go along with it:

    The 1st chart gives a nice look at overall console sales, showing that over the past yr 360 has more than dbld it's base, ps3(almost 6X it's base), & wii(almost 14X it's base). It'll show another spike after the Nov-Jan period is tallied. More consoles = more sales for "all" VG makers. Extremely good for gme (obviously):
    http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii®1=All&cons2=PS3®2=All&cons3=X360®3=All&start=39033&end=39397&weekly=1
    http://vgchartz.com/amonthly.php?month=10&year=2007&console=&maker=&boxartz=1
    http://vgchartz.com/aweekly.php
    http://vgchartz.com/eweekly.php

    Industry talk:
    "NPD analyst: "This yr's sales already equal ann number for 05' - & the 2 biggest months are yet to come. I think we'll see record-breaking revenues & yr-over-yr growth when the final numbers are tallied."
    http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=16270

    "U.S. sales of VG hardware/software jumped 73% in October."
    http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN1534211420071116?rpc=44
    IGN article:
    http://wii.ign.com/articles/835/835706p1.html

    http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/newsanalysis/techsoftware/10390458.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

    It's definitely "all BAD" for VG sector; I can HARDLY STAND to watch... ROFLOL GITA!!!

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • My last two steps were:
      1. I closed the Dec 50's that I had purchased.
      2. I (re)sold covered Dec 55's instead of Jan 50's.
      If I get taken out, so be it.
      At present I've collected $6051 in net premiums over a couple of weeks. If I get taken out there's another 3G's in C.G.'s
      Thanks for asking.

    • lionel- Did you sell your 10 calls again? You could have gotten $8 for those $50's today but I'd prefer selling the $55's. How about the Dec $50's? Did you exit with the 1K you were looking for or did you keep them and sell for a 140% profit today? Congrats regardless...

      GITA!!!

    • This shill has a couple of accounts and talks to himself. Tries to pump GME stock. He has been pumping GME over a 20% loss.

      He is lonely needs a blog, but since his advice is crazy, no one would read it. So he keeps talking to himself here.

      Make fun of him or ignore him. Both are easy to do.

    • Bump for those interested in some truths about gme and who are willing to do a little reading (and follow a few links for verification). Here's another link (to the fantastic ern's report):
      http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/fetchFilingFrameset.aspx?dcn=0001157523-07-011502&Type=HTML

      GL

      GITA!!!

      P.S. Oh wait!!!... Let me be the first to say "But insiders are selling and it's a pump & dump that's overpriced compared to BBY?, CC?, COST?, WMT, SHLD, etc. (and those "are" good comparable stores!)"...

      ROFLOL!!!... Somebody tell me if the Village Idiots say something along those lines. Make that "The MB Idiots" that have nothing to support their case other than "the stock's down"... A "brilliant argument", that could be applied to 90% of the mkt. I guess 90% of the mkt is made up of pump & dump, overpriced stocks... Every board needs a few court jesters I guess...

      GITA!!!

    • Hi gridiron-
      Just to be honest on both sides of the issue I actually have brought this up b4 as well. The download model offers numerous advantages to the VG makers and I think we will eventually get there. Not for at least 4-5 yrs though IMO. I hope your having a great day.

      GITA!!!

    • Matt-

      <"Do options appreciate / depreciate quicker than stocks? Do you trade more options than stocks?">

      --> Yes, that's the appeal. When the stock goes up/dn 5% the options will go up/dn more. Near term options usually move more dramatically but have more risk due them being closer to expiration. I due more trades (as far as "number" of trades) with options because I buy my stocks with a longer term outlook. My trading portfolio is approx 90% stocks vs. 10% options. GL

      GITA!!!

    • I think you have a great post and make some excellent points, but I think you are missing the point a bit. Everything you say is basically true, but that doesn't mean Gamestop can successfully execute their business model for long term profitability. You mention the desire for "the latest electronic gadgets" even during a recession and that is a great point, however, game stop is a specialty business, games only, and that is cyclical seasonally and cyclical hardware refresh. Perhaps your are right, if they maybe added mp3 players and MAYBE cell phones that might help. But in that case the name Electronic Boutique would have been better. I must confess to being close to 30+ years old, which means I have witnessed the almost the entire computer electronics revolution in my life and made a living in it, and I was trying to think of an example of a specialty retail electronics chain surviving and I can't think of one. People thought computers would always require "specialty" stores and computerland went down the tubes and now computers are sold like appliances at wal mart and grocery stores so I don'y buy the ideology you have to buy a game console from a "game store". People thought the same things about computers which are much more complicated devices.

      Again I appreciate your post because it really made me think, I am just wondering why nobody is mentioning the operating margin which is oh so slim on this type of business. Any business that operates on the margin Gamestop does is opearting on VERY thin ice. A 1 or 2 % swing could instantly render this business troubled. I am asking of you that you take your ideology and fit it into the framework of the facts of their accounting and business model.

      • 2 Replies to citizenfabrica
      • if the computer stores could have operated on a profit instead of charging more than BBY,Circuit city etc then they would still be in business. GMe offers the product at the same price as a BBY(used games at a cheaper price) they don't have the overhead expenses, they have knowledgeable staff unlike BBY and they have smaller inventory to manage. All these things drive consumers to GME instead of BBY.

        If the computer stores like computerland could have been the same cost as a BBY but give me answers to my questions and let me buy used parts at a discount price it would still be around.

        While I think, the web will cut into their margins more and more I don't think downloadable games will every catch on. You can't trade them or sell them. If your harddrive fails you lose all your games or you have to download them all again. To much crap, same with movies,

        I could see GME growing into other areas like more computer games possibly some graphic cards, sound cards, maybe a laptop upgrade station to make them gameable. But they have alot of growth in the main core of gaming left to go before they have to start thinking about that.

      • citizen-
        Thanks for the post. I wasn't downplaying your points because I liked reading them for the same reasons you mentioned irt mine. I basically agree about the "long term" outlook being "very questionable". I think our main difference is determining how many yrs away that long term outlook "is". I still expect it to meet my price tgts (not sure if you read that link or not-it's the 3rd link in first post of this thread). If you already read that too you are a really fast reader... LOL

        I also have to disagree a bit with the "cyclical seasonally" issue. Yes, they sell more games in the Nov-Jan timeframe but global growth (combined with the console penetration growth) in the entire VG mkt is making for more yr over yr sales on a continuing basis. This at least applies to the near term (1 to 2 yrs). Additionally, all those extra consoles create more used games as well (their highest margin item). JMO.

        GITA (Good Investing To All)!!!

    • "I confuse myself at times."

      --> LOL, I think we all do that at times (confuse ourselves).

      Crystal clear now.

      Again, nice trades.

      GL tomorrow. :-)

      GITA!!!

    • I stayed out of GME today, concentrated on DE, HPq, MSFT and CNH. but looking to get back in soon. Market will not let you get good multiday set ups in this stock.

    • Well, it's certainly looking like a better buy now that it's had the price knocked out of it a little. We know Cramer bought in March (with his Havard clan) and then told the PUBlic to buy in October to max him out! Now all we need to know is who SOLD 9 Million extra shares today and do they have any more they want to dump tomorrow?

      What's your take on a bottom scraping for this one?

      • 1 Reply to threexnow
      • threexnow-
        I think we saw it today. If had posted that I thought it had downside risk to $48-50 and upside to $56'ish off the ern's report. I think this is actually a lucky opportunity that will look like a great time to have bought when looking back in 3-6 months. IMO, the rest of the wk will still be very volatile & the stock "could" go as low as $45-6 due to turkey wk volatility. I don't think there will be many chances to buy <$50 after that though. JMO.

        GITA!!!

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