what a stupid decsion. They had a chance to get ahead of this slow moving housing mess but they decided to stay in the background. Oh well time to short the market. Santa rally is over.
Well, I've about decided I don't know what "kind" of investor I am. The kind that tries to find a really good company so the odds of it coming out on top eventually are really good? The length of time I hold it is probably based on me trying to find a point where I think its upside is very small and so I get out. I don't think I fit any category besides inexperienced investor. :)
Well for not being a long term investor you hit on one of the three ways to make money in a bear market. The first is to short, the second is to avg down, the third is to wait for the capitulation selling and buy more.
more emotion than manipulative. But yeah it is very much more than fundementals. A week? Maybe it depends on a lot of things but I can't see it hitting new highs for many weeks/ months to come. 2008 will be a very interesting year. either way.
Well the first earnings (GE) isn't going to help. It didn't meet analysts forecasts with its guidance. I know GME can't beat the market sentiment/direction completely, but if anyone with half a brain is watching, I think GME's earnings will be very good (beat the .95-97 guidance) and can still rise into next year.
But, if the market beats the snot out of it, I'll buy some more. VG growth and industry is not going away unless we face the apocalypse, and well, how much money I have will be the least of my concerns then.
I'm probably not the right person to listen to, b/c I'm almost eternally optimistic. I have a wonderful life outside of money. I'm merely trying to learn about stock investing to hopefully be smart with my money by getting the best returns over time, which is why I can see a recession and bear market as an opportunity if it does indeed happen. Get rich quick would be nice, but it's highly unlikely.
Not sure. have not been researching shorts postions much. will probably take a day or two off and do some homework. SBUX looks like a good canidate. MCD YUM look like good longs, utilites look like good shorts too.
To trade in the market you MUST be able to change when the information changes. I was optimistic that the FED and the GOV would at least understand the problems. I am still optimistic that our economy can stay above a recession if we get some leadership. I am not optimistic of the short term direction of the market. The charts are showing a break down after today. We have a ways to fall here why should anyone stay and face the pain? But we are at the moment leaderless during a very dangerous time in the market. To not have our leaders understand then it is hard to see the market going up in the face of lackluster leadership, doom and gloom news, and slowing earnings, increased loan disclosure, bailouts etc. We will be having earnings soon maybe that will change sentiment.
Remember the last month of the bad news? look for it to come back, look for the bears to come out, look for fear to come into play. All of these things will push the market down until we get some leadership. It is not good and I am trying to explain how one announcement can cause a 300pt drop. Some will say its overreaction. It may be but it also could be the begining of a selloff. Selloffs are very quick and very fast. Yes buying oppurtunities will be out there and GME is a good one. I am still bullish on the VG sector, the AG sector, and the infrastructe sector but it is a very dangerous bet to bet against the market. The market made itself very clear today. It did not like what it heard. This was not a retail sell-off this was major selling. This selloff was a big event and could very well be a major change in sentiment.
Thank you lionel, but I was not trying to put unseen down. I enjoy his posts b/c I believe he tries to call it like he sees it. I just wanted him to flesh out a little more (if he wanted) why his position changed at this juncture. In fact, I enjoy almost any post that isn't dirty, doesn't make fun of the unfortunes of others (long or short) and tries to intelligently comment on things.
It would be unwise to think the market goes up forever and at at times you probably should change your position, unseen sees the time is now.
Its NOT a lot of people. Its the arbs and hedge fund managers shaken' the loose fruits out of the trees. They will all be back in buying in a day or two. Thats' what is so "dishonest" about this market and what makes it so tough for the retail investor.