This is not good. Played AG today. Bought the AGLL options at 2.80 sold at 3.80. quick little profit. This market should be up 200pts but it isn't. BBY reported great numbers and yet it's selling off. volume sucks today. GS is getting hit hard even after good numbers. This doesn't look good. Market sold the rally.
It is an illusion of wealth creation
Yeah that illusion sure can buy a lot of things. And I said inflation enables the economy to grow. Not that it creates wealth. It basically stimulates a the human emotion of greed. Deflation on the other hand stimulates the human emotion of fear. Therefore it is imperative for a growing economy to have a basis towards greed and not fear so that wealth can be created. Your lack of basic economic principles continues to amaze.
Do schools and borkerages firms not teach you these things anymore?
Oh and by the way my two trades today trading on my worldview made 35.7% and 10% in the bank profit (both long calls) before commisions. And at the same time I am protected from any overnight move of the indexs. While your call of shorting GME is showing a -3.18% loss so far today even more if you where using options.
I think I'll stick with mine and bet against yours. It seems to be working out well.
<yawn> You do not need to explain finance and economics to me. I am familiar, my undergraduate degree is in business. I worked as intern in the biggest brokerage firm in US for a couple of years.
We have gone through this before. You think inflation creates wealth. But inflation is just is increasing the amount of fiat money in circulation. It is an illusion of wealth creation.
You trust Central, bureaucratic and secretive planners to dictate the market rates and maintain the value of a paper currency. I am more familiar with history.
you really have no idea how things work do you?
We are not talking about the stock market. the stock market is only following the bond market which drawfs the stock market. the bond market controls all of the economy. This immoral inflation you are talking about has enabled ALL americans to increase their standard of living in the last 60 years. run away inflation is bad, steady inflation means growth and prosperity. The largest period of DEFLATION was during the DEPRESSION. How can you be so stupid?
The stock market and bond markets impact 100% of Americans regardless of if they know it or not. all pension plans.401k. iras, government programs are dependent on these markets. It matters little if you own stocks and bonds. If you are part of this economy you are impacted. A market crash hurts EVERYONE (including you) regardless of the amount of stocks or bonds they hold. It impacts companies ability to hire, to spend, it impacts governments ability to borrow, the taxes paid by the avg citizen, it impacts the avialibity of credit and the ability of the avg person to get credit. It impacts the housing market, it impacts local governments, it impacts the schools you send your children too, it impacts food stamps, unemployment checks, welfare checks, it impacts building of roads, of bridges, of water projects. In short a major market crash would destroy the entire economy of this country and destroy this country regardless of rather you own stocks or not. The only thing that saved us last market crash was WW2. Not FDR and his socialist band of brothers, In fact he made it longer and deeper.
You say you want a steak and lobster on every plate? No what you want is the complete destruction of this country, millions of homeless and jobless.
that is what will happen if your "worldview" comes to pass.
The stock market does not operate in a vacuum. Before the Central bank was created we had major booms and busts. Since the FED has began its "artifical inflation campaign" we've had a growing and strong middle class, we have had 17 years without a major recssion and 70 years without a depression. I'll take the FED anyday even when they are cluless.
Are there definitions for bear market (as in when officially it's a bear market) and for a market crash? What was the time after the dot.com bubble burst? The Sept. 11 attacks?
I can't imagine investing sentiment being any worse than after Sept. 11. Everyone who lived in the U.S. had their idea of the world turned upside down. Some might have thought the world had ended or that WWIII was at our doorstep.
I don't remember any soup lines then. Why will this be different? IF we go into recession and IF we go into a bear market, why does it have to be 1929 all over again? Recessions and bear markets happen with regularity without all out depressions setting in, right? Bad times, slow times and so on probably are needed to keep things regulated and minimize "irrational exuberance," but when/if these bad times comes can't we step back from the ledge of irrational despair?
a bear market is 20% or more below the highs. A correction is 10% of its highs.
We are not offically in a bear market yet and there is a good chance we will not be if the FED acts.
I mentioned 1929 in a previous post because the similarites of then and now are striking. I have no idea if it could get that bad agian. We have more protections now like FDIC, welfare, unemployment checks, food stamps.
the Nasdaq sold off more than 50% in the dot.com bubble.
A crash is more a matter of time frame (short quick down movements) than % of loss.
The reason this crisis has the potential to morph into a major recession/depression because it is a problem with the bond market not the stock market. companies earnings are good. Banks the heart of our economy are in major trouble, lending between banks has dried up. The last time we had major bank failures was 1990 and the S&L crisis. That was contained to the US. This problem is worldwide. thus we could have a chain reastion. the chance of this is low at the moment but with every non action of the FED and central banks the chance grows. Today's injection of 1/2trillion dollars by the ECB should have sent a major wake up call to everyone. think about what the ECB is saying they needed 1/2trillion to shore up the lending market. That means major major problems are out there.
Can we solve them and power to new highs? Of course. Is it 100% sure we will go intio a recession? No Greenspan says 50/50 at the moment. Is there a chance it steam rolls and becomes a depression? Yes. Is it a big chance at the moment? No. But before you can fix a problem you have to know how bad things can get. What I am saying is the worse case and should be treated as such.
I can answer that, but I would rater defer you to someone else, so you have so more varied perspective. (Plus, she types faster then me_.
Go post your question to dwot on CAPS
She is ranked 14 out of 40k, very wise and she like to talk. The guys here on the GME message board are not worth listening to.
I'm going to make a huge wild hypothesis that no one should make any decisions based on. I really know nothing.
Santa Rally the rest of this week. Market will be up from here.
Why: Mainly, I want to be optimistic, but as for some reason...Good earnings and good news when no one expected any. The market is still glum and thinking everything is supposed to go down. When they finally digest this news (and some eggnog), they'll realize "It's a Wonderful Life" all is not lost. They'll get back into the market. If it's a matter of emotion, then today's good news (possibly more with other earnings) will lift spirits and nobody wants to go into their Christmas vacation with a serious case of the scrooge? ;)
Now, that's some great analysis. I could have a career in this!
hope your right. since I'm in cash it matters not for me which way the market goes. Bought some BBY 47.5 calls today and some AGLL calls sold the AGLL calls still have the BBY calls. but will probably sell before the eod. But I would rather see the market go up than down. Down hurts everyone but some shorts. Up it helps everyone except shorts.
Chance of recession = 100%
Hyperinflation or depression?
The experts who run our largest banks and brokerage firms were sucked into a series of really stupid investments.This is not good for public confidence. It raises a realistic question:
"How reliable are the experts who direct investors' money?" The answer: "Not very."
This answer is bad for stocks.
The dollar is falling.
Congress is impotent / corrupt / distrusted.
Bush is a lame duck (luckily?)
War with Iran still possible.
Jim Roger said he is selling all US assets including real estate due to the intentionial currency debasement by FED and Treasury. JR also said the US is in a recession.
Greenspan said 50% chance of recession. David Tice was on bloomberg.com said the US market was built on easy credit, low rates and the stock market would drop 50-60%.
Buffet was traveling to China and said the China market was to "hot" to find any stocks there.
FED maybe trying to tighten.
Gold is rising. Oil is rising.
Level III accounting is being introduced / explained and it looks very scarey for GS, C, BSC, JPM, MS,
Jim Cramer talked about recession (finally).
Plus Pat Buchanan wrote: Sinking Currency, Sinking Country
Good news is: Dr Ron Paul raised $6 million in one day. A new record
Why would anyone buy stocks, except defense industry stocks and energy stocks?