An inconvenient new peer-reviewed study published in the December 2007 issue of the International Journal of Climatology.
Climate warming is naturally caused and shows no human influence:
Climate scientists at the University of Rochester, the University of Alabama, and the University of Virginia report that observed patterns of temperature changes (�fingerprints�) over the last thirty years are not in accord with what greenhouse models predict and can better be explained by natural factors, such as solar variability. Therefore, climate change is �unstoppable� and cannot be affected or modified by controlling the emission of greenhouse gases, such as CO2, as is proposed in current legislation.
Co-author John Christy said: �Satellite data and independent balloon data agree that atmospheric warming trends do not exceed those of the surface. Greenhouse models, on the other hand, demand that atmospheric trend values be 2-3 times greater. We have good reason, therefore, to believe that current climate models greatly overestimate the effects of greenhouse gases. Satellite observations suggest that GH models ignore negative feedbacks, produced by clouds and by water vapor, that diminish the warming effects of carbon dioxide.�
Co-author S. Fred Singer said: �The current warming trend is simply part of a natural cycle of climate warming and cooling that has been seen in ice cores, deep-sea sediments, stalagmites, etc., and published in hundreds of papers in peer-reviewed journals. The mechanism for producing such cyclical climate changes is still under discussion; but they are most likely caused by variations in the solar wind and associated magnetic fields that affect the flux of cosmic rays incident on the earth�s atmosphere. In turn, such cosmic rays are believed to influence cloudiness and thereby control the amount of sunlight reaching the earth�s surface and thus the climate.� Our research demonstrates that the ongoing rise of atmospheric CO2 has only a minor influence on climate change. We must conclude, therefore, that attempts to control CO2 emissions are ineffective and pointless. � but very costly.
and the evidence builds.
Admittedly, I don't use charts to the extent that some people do. All I can say is that regardless of what you see in the chart I don't see it going below an absolute floor of $25-6 due to the $27.50 value applied as part of the merger. I believe that sometime the charts have to "catch up to the stock" as opposed to the stock moving to where the chart indicates it is heading. My take would be that maybe that's the situation irt ATVI and its chart.
All I know is that long term (6-12 months) the 50, 100, 200 dma's will all be moving up and the chart will look great and at that time the chartists will jump on it as well. I want to be in ahead of that and ahead of any positive merger/tender updates.
biggest problem is it looks oversold at the moment and the chart looks ripe for a pullback. i hate to go with fundementals when the chart is telling me the opposite. I like them both to tell me the same thing
While I usally go short term esp in this market I have no problem with switching horses if something comes up. i was looking at the options for ATVI before and thought about buying some 09's or 10's since the stock is basically dead money now and people are no longer factoring growth. When everyone is doing short term thinking it could be benefical to think longterm. We are not there yet in the overall market but with ATVI I think we might be.
Yea the $20's could be a good trade. I didn't think you went beyond a few days/wks though so I wouldn't have mentioned it to you. IRT the expiration: If you're considering the 2009's you might also look at the 2010's because you're only paying another $1 for an entire yr of extra time value. The downside is of course that same time value you're getting because it is another yr of potential negative news. If you bought the $20's for $8-9 I'd bet you could sell them for at least $16 and possibly as much as the low $20's. I've been adding to my ATVI position by selling puts (most recently the Jan 09 $30's for $6.50).
"Will the merger effect the shareprice on ATVI? Looks like it will stick to around 27.50 for the next couple of months until the buyout is finished."
--> The merger will be completed sometime nest yr. My guess is sometime between Feb and Apr. I don't want to be out of it though because of the possibility of a counter offer, the raising of the proposed tender offering to $29-30, and/or an earlier than expected merger completion. Any of those things will pop the stock and when the merger completes it will be in the $30's in no time... "IMO"
The dilution will potentially be partly offset (depending on participation) by the $4B tender offer after deal is complete. I already ran the numbers using the new share count and in 6 months to a yr the stock will be considered o have been a steal at these levels.
Will the merger effect the shareprice on ATVI? Looks like it will stick to around 27.50 for the next couple of months until the buyout is finished. Looks a lot like a secondary. That has been the bane of ATVI shareholders over the years share dilution. ATVI uses it like an ATM machine. But they have put the money to good use and it has benefited shareholders in the long run. However, that being said if/when ATVI gets into cash problems the first thing they will tap is share price.
P.S. I thought you were going shopping? Hey, while you're out buy something at GME.
I have already spent way more than I should have at GME add into that Best Buy and HP.com and Compusa and I'm overbudget. But my good friend John Deere paid for it all.
Just waiting for my son to get home from school before I go. Half a day today. Stll glad I sold MSFT at the open. Have to take profits in this market.
In layman's terms, our world is getting old and so is the sun--a star that expands as it ages. The aging sun is making our earth's climate warmer and we cannot reverse or slow down the sun's aging process.
So let us all protect our eyes and skin from overexposure to the sun. In the future many parks and playgrounds will have dome-like see through coverings and lots of trees. So any publicly traded company that provides material or plants for such projects will be great investments because such projects will be the government kind.
And then we can expect more people to stay indoors and play physical video games on the Nintendo Wii. And GME goes on as the world and universe fall apart before the second coming of Christ.
"The aging sun is making our earth's climate warmer and we cannot reverse or slow down the sun's aging process."
--> ("IMO") The aging sun isn't the issue irt the changes cited by this particular report. It's talking about changes "over the last thirty years" which would not be attributed to the aging sun because it ages at a very slow rate. I believe that the reference to "solar variability" has more to do with temporary cycles of "solar flares" than the actual heating up of the sun. Any long term rise in the sun's energy output will most likely occur over 10's of 1000's of yrs not 100's (and most certainly not 30). Again, "IMO"