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  • flyerd1 flyerd1 Jan 14, 2008 7:55 PM Flag

    For those 'who can accept' the potential for a 19% return...

    What? I don't agree with that and don't think you have to subtract out anything. It's simply a trade "like any other trade". Instead of a small option trade, or a pure stock trade, this one is a stock "&" option trade. With the reasoning you're suggesting you should say that your "entire invested brokerage account" money is "money you don't have the use of"... It's money that's "invested" regardless of how... The trade stands in and of itself and has the added benefit of being much safer than an outright purchase of either stock or options.

    BTW, If someone bought the stock outright for $53.70 today they'd need to sell at $63.90 to get the same return that this trade does. Should it see $63.90? Most people here think so but even if it "fell" to $45 in a year this trade makes 19% vs. a loss on the pure stock was trading below $53.70.

    Basically, if someone invested just $50K of their portfolio among 2-3 trades like this (ones that would return 15-25% in 1yr) they'd double their money every 4yrs. That $50K would be 800K in 16yrs and 1.6M in 20yrs. "Most people" who trade much more frequently do not avg 20%/yr. I've seen plenty who fall into that category. If it was easy the "professional" funds would consistently avg those returns.

    The example simply given to show a great trade that someone could pretty much "set & forget" if they wanted to. If nobody wants to they don't have to, it's just an example. "JMO"... Maybe we'll just agree to disagree on this one. ;-)


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    • It is a great trade. Its the kind that I would make. All I am saying is (in the simplist terms):

      If a series of trades (which involve risk) would net you (say) 3% a year and you could get the same 3% with no risk in a CD, then your trades were not worth it.

      • 1 Reply to lionelman17
      • I guess I thought you were saying that this type of trade locked up your money more than any other trade. It sounds like your just saying you want to compare all your returns to a CD's return. Well yes, I agree, that you should always compare your overall returns to what you could get with no work. For the record, I don't ever invest in CD's unless I'm getting over approximately 7.5% so I probably won't be buying any for quite a few yrs.


    • P.S. If I was someone actually initiating this trade I'd buy the stock and wait for it to hit the high $50's then sell $50's instead of $45's. That would still bring my basis dn to approx $37 but the sale price would be $50 instead of $45. That would set up a 35% return (dbl your $ every 2.25yrs, $50K = 1.6M n just over 11yrs) but would have no protection until the calls were sold. I'd be buying 25-33% blocks of the eventual gme position I wanted and would sell the calls at the price mentioned.

      Once in a while I like to show those people who feel intimidated by the quick trades discussed on some of the board that they can make "great" rates of return without trying that. GLA


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