Digital download is a very interesting topic for discussion, but... I bought GME when it was at 33 before the split. I knew this would become a topic, but I didn't expect it so soon. Fact: All games (ALL Media) will eventually be downloadable. On XBOX Live you can download Game Demos and easily decide if you like a game. Most people know within the first 5 minutes of play. Next step is to download the full version. This will eventually be the case for all games on all systems. Outcome: No more Gamestop. This will not happen realistically until the next generation of consoles is released (At least a couple years). It all teaters now on how the street views GME. If GME continues to have outstanding quarters (which it will) I think the street won't be able to ignore it. That is why I am holding my shares until this market turns around. I believe GME has a couple (and probably just a couple)more outstanding runs. I am at least waiting until we all get our rebate checks from Uncle Sam. Where do you think all that free money is going to go? A large percentage of the population's first stop after cashing that check will be Gamestop.
What a stupid analysis!!!
A large % of the population will spend their checks at gamestop??? what are u talking about? most of the population dont even play video games..on top of that a small% of those that do will spend it at gamespot. U must think people live only to play video games.
Second, What is this next gen stuff u are talking about. I've downloaded 1 xbox original game on my 360 and its playing perfect. This was 2 months ago!!!
Third, why would i even listen to someone that rides a stock from $33 to $64, then back to $40. You clearly dont know what you are doing or talking about!
"you are talking generational change not one two or even 5 years out"
I said next "generation" consoles.
"Xbox and xbox360 sold many more systems then people signed up for xboxlive. Will MSFT,ATVI etc leave those people out in the dark? what if it means the difference between a 800,000 seller and a 1.2 million seller. I don't think they will thus they will sell the games and thus people will still see the vaule in having a physical copy instead of a download."
The xbox live membership numbers continue to grow. The number of people that have broadband in their homes continues to grow. Eventually the tide will change and there will be more home with broadband than without.
"Can you take your download over to your friends to play the lastest game? Can you trade in your download when your finished? Can you save your download over years and bring out the classics when in the mood? My son will on occasion still hook up his nintentdo 64 just to play Zelda one more time. this game is like what 10 years old? throw in the first tony hawk while the system is hooked up and you got yourself a good night. Will you be able to do that with a download? "
Yes you can take your dowload to your friends. The 360 has a removable hardrive that I can just pop in my pocket and bring to a friends house. Yes you will be able to do all of this with a download. 10 years from now if I want to play downloaded games on my 360 I will be able too. It will be easy to find them. They will all be in one place. On my hardrive.
"MSFT can't even get the xbox360 and windows from crashing what happens to your games if they are set to expire, if a virus invades your system etc. Maybe in 10 or 20 years maybe but by then GME will have plenty of time to change their focus if they need too."
I'm not going to defend MSFT, but the 3 red lights issue is going away. With all technology there are some growing pains. Viruses are probably always a risk. But if your system crashes you wouldn't be able to play a hardcopy either. And if you did lose your data (hardrive crash) even on the current 360 MSFT allows you to download all the games you purchased again. If anything happens to your download, you just download it again. And download speeds are increasing, so that won't be an issue either. If you scratch a disc, to bad, you're out of luck. If you lose your disc, to bad, you're out of luck. Fire in the house and all your discs melted, to bad, you're out of luck.
What will GME change their focus too? They sell new and used copies of video games. Maybe they will end up selling game manuals, posters, and figurines through their website.
"Maybe GME will offer interchangable harddrives or maybe something else. I am neither long nor short GME infact i got out of the market all together Friday except for ira and 401k money. But GME looks like a great buy at this point. Short interest is up, the stock refuses to go below 45 and 100 games coming out in March, add in GTA4 and the rebate checks, the resupply of the wii, and the wii fit and GME looks very good for the spring summer and fall."
I completely agree. GME has a long way to go. The next several quarters should be outstanding. I am long in GME, but I hope I know when to pull the plug.
downloads will not take off if they are the same price as in the store. Add into the fact that used games at GME are cheaper still and that GME makes a ton on margins for used games, gme has alot of room to cut costs if they need too to fend off downloads. If ATVI, ERTS think they can sell a download for $60.00 they are nuts, Now if they sell the game for maybe $30.00 it might work. No one but a stupid person would pay $60.00 for a download that they can not trade back in, that they can not share with their friends etc. Look at ebooks. The idea has failed because the publishers insist on putting DRM on the books and then charging full price for it. The ONLY reason MP3 and music in general took off was because it was easy to transfer to different devices, you could share the songs with your friends, and the cost was less than an CD. When you put downloads up against a physical copy at the same price tag, the download fails EVERYTIME. Xbox marketplace does well on demos, and small games that cost $5.00. trying to charge full price for a download will doom downloads to ebook status.
Even VOD is not expanding because it costs too much in relation to other forms of movie watching like netflix, BBI. Greed kills downloads, VOD, etc. Companies think they can charge the same price for an inferior product then wonder why it is not taking off. itunes does not even come close to the old napster because of the DRM and the .99c cost. If itunes would charge maybe .10c, no drm then people would pay for the security of a no virus site to get their music. And the downloads from itunes would be a factor of 100 higher. which would translate in to 10 times more profit.
I agree with you about full priced downloads, but..
What if you have a choice? You can either pay the full price to download the game or pay a montlhy membership fee to have access to all the games. I know which one I would choose. I do it with my Zune. I don't buy any songs. I pay a monthly charge to download any one of millions of songs. My Zune is always jam packed with new music. If Microsoft is doing this with the Zune, then they may have plans to do it with the XBOX also.
Downloads and streaming media is inevitable. It will happen and it will work. GME will not be here forever.
F-that. My check's going in the bank. However, I see your point about people spending their stimulus checks. I'm willing to ride the stock out until the end of the year and see what happens once the checks are in everyone's hands and we've had another holiday season to look at.