Ithink we are in the 7th with the possibility of extra innings. there is alot of factors that could keep this TIED GAME for a long time. as far as Citi they are selling them for around 86 to 90 cents on a dollar or a 10-14% discount.
They are selling them at a 90% discount, at least that's what is being reported. I think C may rally on the news. That's what it seems like anyway. What inning do you think we are in? I know the fed an congress are trying to stimulate things, although with homes dropping and energy and food rising, seems like we could be in a prolonged slow growth period.
Thanks for the explanation. Your thoughts on economy seem right on. There is still a lot of uncertainty out there. Now I know why I prefer day trading. Being long or short in this environment is tough. I'm starting to warm up to banks at this point myself. It will be interesting to see how earnings season goes. I know expectations are low, but I wonder if we will see any attractive weakness. What homebuilders do you like? Not an industry that I am very familiar with.
with shorts its always the end of the world. Once in a while they are right. Citi is in a very diffucult postion. If Citibank fails I don't think the fed has enough to bail it out. It would be bad like 100's of billions possibly trillion bad.
Citi deal need to know more details. depends how much of a discount they are giving on the 12billion in loans. We are at a cross roads. earnings don't mean much except on a company by company basis this time around. Everyone thinks they will be terrible. It is the future that is now driving the market. If the market thinks we are in the 6th or 7th inning of the bad times we move higher, if they think we are in the 2nd or 3rd we move lower. I think we will base here for a while with a slight downward basis until the news from washington becomes clearer. MS CEO news was bullish. UPS bearish, Washington DC news bullish, Citi slightly bearish, Fed minutes slightly bearish, etc its going to be a seesaw movement for awhile until it becomes clear. Once it does we move much higher/lower depending on news.
IMF is looking to sell 400 tones of gold to increase its balance sheet and invest the proceeds in equities and bonds. Looks bad for gold short term. this will take several months to get approval from member nations and then several months for the selling to be completed. All the time a ceiling as been put it the price of gold. Now on to oil. Oil and gasoline is showing a major demand problem. People are decreasing demand for both. If the dollar stabliizes than oil falls 20% in a day. gasoline will follow course. what will cause the dollar to quit falling? the FEd stopping the rate cuts. what will cause the Fed to stop cutting rates? Home pricing bottoming. what will cause the home prices to bottom? well the $300 billion dollar bill making its way thru the Congress which theWhite House just said they will support. the only fly in the web IRT inlfation left would be the base metals, steel, etc and Food. A recession will put some demand pressure on those but the growth of Rest of world should continue to support those prices. So if you are going to invest in commodities Ag looks the best then BHP, FCX, FMC etc I would stay away from oil and gold. Bubbles do not last. Ag is demand driven but that demand could change quickly.
so it looks like banks and home builders MIGHt be a good bet. Also retailers like GME should do well with the $150 billion rebates coming, Aapl and tech not so much IMO.