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  • unseennc unseennc May 15, 2008 3:44 PM Flag

    O/T Matt CX just brokeout of a 3month base

    resistence was 29.45. Setting up for a nice trade with tight stops. If it falls below 29.45 get out outerwise hold tight run will begin once the damage is understood. A 7.9mag earthquake is a very powerful quake. It wipes out entire cities, dams, roads, the size of the effect area is as large as Maryland. Cement is going to be in short supply.

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    • Guess you weren't wrong!!! I believe the DOW was about 1000 points higher when you decided to go into cash. That was a great call. Looks like we have a lot more pain to come.

    • I'm out for now taking a week or two off I think. Oil is in the grip of fear and you can not know what it will do from day to day. Fundmentals say it should fall and fall hard but it continues to go up on fear of 5-10years out. In 5 to 10 years we can have hybrids, more ethanol, electric cars etc the world's hunger for oil my dry up and oil could be trading for $10.00 a bl. when people start trading a substance based on 2016 contracts it is impossible to tell where it will go. So I choose not to play at the moment. I'll give it a week or two and see if sanity comes back to the market. I still have SFD calls. A couple MVL calls for the HULK opening enough to keep me interested in the market but not enough to watch itall day. Rails I think are overvauled, oil overpriced, natrual gas would be the way I would play oil. FLS, and infrastructure like FLR, FWLT, SGr would be another way to play it. Oil services is also ok but they trade with oil so if oil crashes they will drop also. FLR, FWlT will take a hit but they shouldn't take as much because it's more a growth story esp with the earthquake rebuilding to come. ******watch gold it's going to $950.00 If it breaks to the upside from $950.00 it will retest its highs. If it breaks down at $950.00 its a long long drop. ABX, NEM AUY for gold. SWC, PAL for platnium. all should be ok as long as oil is going up.

      Have fun

    • Well it was a great call in either case. I didn't make the connection and you spelled it out for me! Hopefully, it will come with experience. Being long today was very painful. Guess I'm going back to being a trader. I'd rather take my profits and run at the end of the day than be long and wonder how much oil is going to spike up next. The oil trend is truly scary. I'd hate to see what happens if we reach 150 like some expect. What are you playing tomorrow with out of control oil?

    • LOL no, no crystal ball. just had a feeling(plus the stocks were saying something also), when I saw MO moving up on strong volume for no reason i got worried and started looking around what I saw was not good so I got out. Didn't want to go short because it can turn around on a dime if oil drops. Until then I think the selling isn't over. As long as oil goes up the rest of the market goes down. might see a 50% retrace from the high before it's all done. Could even test the mar lows. If rails, ag, and oil breaks down too late. We are setting up for a major recessionary event due to demand destruction IMO. the only way to increase consumer spending at this stage is to lower prices. If anything prices are going to rise. If consumers were smart they will take the stimulus checks and pay down unsecured debts. credit card interest is going to go up. Might be time to buy a couple puts in COF again. Good Luck out there.

      Not a good time for Obama to tell the consumer its time to conserve. If he wins I am going to short the entire market as it drops to 8,000

    • Do you have a crystal ball? Good call yesterday, although I wish you were wrong. Oil is out of control and the market is taking a beating!

    • from here on out as long as oil goes up the market comes down. We have enetered the zone of demand destruction due to high oil prices IMO. Retail will be taken to the woodshed. GME numbers on thurs better be great or it selloff time. I would buy some puts for insurance before earnings if I was long.

    • yeah GMe was was of those little things I was talking about. I see two choices. Both center on oil. either OIL has to crash and bring gas/diseal prices down or we go into a recession. since the market leaders has been commodities, oil,ag,metals a crash in oil will sell off the market. If oil doesn't crash the rest of the market including financials, housing, discrentonary, retail etc will fall bringing down the market. Even if oil crashes than those sectors like retail will most likely not recover quick enough to avoid a slow down. Once oil flipped into bubble territory last week the chioces for the market are slim to continue higher IMO. throw in the earthquake in china which will ramp up inflation in china and thus since we import ALL of our crap from there increase inflation at home. there is going to be a major push for food, shelter, fuel etc in China over the next couple of months. Last reports I saw said as many as 4.8million people are homeless. even in a nation of 1.2 billion that is a large mass of people.

      Our government's answer (at least the little that they say) to the crisis is to conserve. You can not conserve you way out of a crisis. You either grow your way out or you conserve yourself into a smaller economy. humans being humans once conservation kicks in the suppliers lose money and therefore raise their prices to make up for the loss in volume this leads to a massive inflationary movement or STAGFLATION.

    • Nothing wrong with protecting gains. The market isn't going to shoot up, so I doubt that you will miss many gains. You may even be able to jump back in a little cheaper. I'm mixing my trades right now. Still day trading, but also selling covered calls and writing puts. So far my patience is paying off. Only time will tell!

    • Tech was weak today because SNDK came out and said that sales were soft in April. Like that's a big surprise! Tech has also had a nice run lately. Look at AAPL, RIMM, EMC, CSCO. I am not overly concerned. We're probably due for a little weakness in the short term. At this point, I'm still a buyer and tentatively a holder. I could change my mind tomorrow who knows. GME looked awful today. Could see $50 by earnings. I was glad to see GE up. Lets see if it will continue.

    • Matt,

      I'm most likely wrong and i don't know why I did it but besides the SFD options I picked up today and a couple of MVL calls. I sold everything and went into cash. IRA, 401k, stock account, I have been watching the action and quite frankly it scared the hell out of me. things that were suppose to be working weren't things that should be selling off aren't, things that people NEED are ramping higher the reversal in the markets seems to point to a short term top. Alot of little things. like I said I'm probably over reacting but.... made some nice profits over the last couple of months so the hell with it. If I'm wrong can always get back in but I think it is going to be at a lower price in the entire market will check back with you. Good Luck

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