most likely we have another 1000 pts to go before the slow drift back to the lows as ecnomic worries take center stage. Nothing is cast in stone but take profits where and when you have them. Made more today than most people make all year. I protected those profits. Still long the market. got my defensive stocks prepared to ride it out in my IRa but...no in love with this market. GME should do fine until christmas can easily see 45 before all said and done with GME.
think about it. 10-15 years ago it cost $100-$200 per trade. On a 10,000 investment that is alot of % of any gain you could have. If you do it three or four times in a week? a Month? the costs of trading would make it impossible for the samll investor to time the market. Now trades are anywhere from $0-$15. Timing know becomes profitable to the little guy as well as the big guys. Also tax policy is more friendly to trading than before.
Yet the big guys still can only make money by trading so they have to lie about timing the market.
However, a buy and hold approach with weekly or biweekly deposits like in a 401k are still a very good way to create wealth esp if you have 20-40 years and invest in div paying stocks.
Personally I like both approaches. I try not to trade much in my 401k just with the big moves, my ira is more timing with betting the whole thing at times on a one day trade but going back to good high div plays during a slightly upward market or a slightly downward movement. My individual account is for trading not investing. Options, margin etc. It is my job the others are investing. If you can stay in the market during years of 4-10% avg gains but get out during the 30% selloffs your avg will be a lot better.
I still contribute every pay to the 401k. The Ira I add money when i see oppurtunity. My individual account I add when I have no bills left and my savings are in tact.
Money management is more important IMO than trading/investing stratagy.
i kind of agree with Cramer. Buy and hold seems like it is dead. Could electronic trading and the information age be the culprit? I kind of wonder if Buffet could make his fortunes if he started investing now. Could his buy and hold strategy really pay off as it had in the past? Maybe, but it's certainly not that path that i want to pursue. Long term investors have watched their portfolios crumble, while savvy traders make a killing.
it is possible to time the market, but 90% of the population is too lazy or disinterested to put the time in. your successful because you study the market and the economy. Too many americans have their head in the sand. I've only been at this for a year and a half and I know more about investing than 95% of people that i know. Most of which are much older than me.
BTW - when are you holding an investing seminar? sign me up ;)
I don't know. was listening to Cramer last night and he said something like "buy and hold is dead" Not sure if I agree but I also know that "you can't time the market" is the biggest lie ever told. You may not be able to time it at the exact price but if you pay attention you can see the big moves coming.
IMO Wall Street makes its money on timing the market. That is how they feed themselves. They lie and sucker the avg person into long term investing then push the stocks daily.
But Buffet says you can also be a long term investor if you have enough patience and intelligence. So both are doable. I don't like to see red so I time the market somewhat. I have been wrong sometimes and missed out on some gains or didn't take profits soon enough. But I think it is more a matter of who you are. If you are a patient investor you can make it by slow and steady.
the biggest mistake I see people make is not taking profits. You get a stock like GMe that double and doubled again and some never once though about taking some of that profit off the table in the last 5 years. That I don't understand. I mean I can see why they wouldn't but the odds are so stacked against them that from a logic point of view I don't understand.
the second biggest mistake I have seen is people not admitting to being wrong. I know i have made alot of boneheaded calls on stocks that the price went the otherway. Instead of sticking with it I bailed and went somewhere else. Always protect your capital is now my first rule. Always. there is no exception to that rule. In my book. Not trying to be preachy just saying what I have learned the hardway over the course of years in the market.
Third biggest mistake is not seeing the coming narrative at play in the market. The market is always controlled by a narrative. Be it big caps are undervauled, fed is cutting rates, fed is rasing rates, taxes are going up, taxes are going down etc. Understanding the narriative ;and sometimes there are two or three at play, allows you to spot the turns. When the press and traders start talking about something else it is time to listen. For instance been hearing a lot about natural gas lately.
From my own research on sunspots and fake global warming news I think this winter will take a lot of people by surprise. NG has been sold off by about 50% , the NG plays have got crushed. If the winter is as cold as I think it will be NG should spike. Since traders are starting to talk about NG it seems something is up with it. Ng is on my rader.
The food prices are not going down in the stores this is also a tell.
Just rambeling now but you get the idea. good Luck Matt.
That's extra impressive considering we are in the middle of a bear market. Can an "investor" make it nowadays? I'm starting to wonder. As you said the other day, you made enough to meet your goal for the year and you were only in the market for a day or two.
It depends on the account. My IRA I'm up about 50% for the year. 401k up about 15%. individual account hard to say because i pulled so much out of it to pay off all my debt and would have to go back and figure it all out but up big. the market has been good to me this year even with my 2-3months of vacation this summer. Learning to think unlike the herd is a good primer for the market.
Most of my selling was done at the close yesterday. I sold some more this morning but still have the majority of my div plays. Other than that and the little I placed in my 401k I'm flat again. Will most likely buy in after the rest of the people get done with the profit taking.