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GameStop Corp. Message Board

  • stockplayboy stockplayboy Jul 8, 2009 10:09 AM Flag

    Gamestop--Summer of Pain?!

    I don't know what it is about this stock.

    The market has it's issues now and this stock CAN outperform the market.

    Will it? Not for a while IMO.

    I got in at 21.57 and am regretting it. This may very well tank back to the teens somewhere. I am not sure...all depends on the market forces. It looks to be a slow summer and DOW could float around 7900-8200's. It could also bounce to 9000 again. The truth is...nobody really knows. What we do know is GME has a solid balance sheet, and excess cash.

    What we do know is October-January time the Game industry will be booming.

    What we do know is this stock needs the DOW to be around 8500-9000 to trade in excess of 24-25 stock price.

    What we don'w know:

    We do not know how well Best Buy and Wal-Mart will do against GME the way they are trying to penetrate used game sales.

    I cringe when I think of people going to shop there for that but it does not mean it cannot happen.

    It certainly makes sense why they are doing it since USED games is why GME had a soar in sales. When Best Buy and Wal-Mart saw that. They figured, how can we make more money? Let's just copy Gamestop.
    And that is exactly what they are doing.

    Right now the threat is small and we should have a great quarter 4 this year...because games sales will soar. The question is short term are we really going to feel the pain?

    I hope not.

    Any thoughts?

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    • To be honest, I'd rather go short on a company with worse fundamentals. that's just me. The truth is shorts may make some good money this earnigns quarter if things look grim... but still I'd rather a different company that is doing much worse than GME. JMHO.


      You want a volatile stock to play with go to X and check out options on that!

      That is crazy stuff.

    • Whether I am long or short does not matter for the purposes of this comment:

      S&P deserves to be sued/fined out of existence. They have completely failed in their alledged task of FAIRLY rating companies and securities.

    • Yup, I think there is a potential bounce back but for now, shorting here and there making quick bucks make sense.

    • to any shorts out there, I hope you are quick gain shorts because anyone that seriously thinks this will go lower than 16-19 is an idiot.

      S&P would not give this thing a strong buy recommendation if it was a serious short stock.

    • It sux to be you guys right now haha j/k

    • Thoughts?
      YES!
      You got in at a good price,,,not to worry.

    • I made a bit of money by playing the gap back in mid May. I then got back in and lost a bit but I got out at $22.xx. Overall, I still banked some coin with GME.

      GME chart looks so bearish. Way below the MA(200). I am waiting for a little pop into the TAZ to short the stock.

    • I'm targeting a conservative fair value of 40/share. They are going to make OVER $3/share next year and a multiple of just 13 pegs you around 39 bucks. This is a no brainer double. It will look oh so easy and oh so right in 3 to 6 months. Right now people don't buy because only a cheery consensus carries a high price (Warren Buffettism). So you can buy it later when everyone loves it or sell it to them when they all love it and want to pay you up for it.

      As an investor doing the above is very difficult but it is what made Buffett the greatest. Not doing it is easy and that is what most investors do and that is also why most lose to the index.

      Could this be the exact bottom. Maybe or maybe not. Who cares. The margin of safety is firmly built in here at 20. If it goes lower you can always buy more or just wait for the cheery consensus to arrive and it will. Buffett bought Washington Post then proceeded to lose 40% on it. He held it and in time it became his best investment. Just proves with a margin of safety there is no need to find that random bottom. GME is a gift here for patient value investors. Holidays are coming and consensus will change as GME stores are buzzing.

    • I can only speak to what I actually see. I have 3 small kids and the highlight of their week is I go to GameStop on Fridays and get them each a new used game. The store is right next to a Radio Shack and a Best Buy. I think GameStop has more people in it than Radio Shack and Best Buy combined. Not only are there kids, but parents as well. It seems to be the hangout of choice for tons of kids hanging out in front. No way can Best Buy compete with that. Kids dont hang out at Best Buy. GameStop is like a Starbucks for kids. I bought a chunk at 23, and I'm holding on for the profits to come.

      • 1 Reply to gregriebesehl
      • exactly right. Gamestop has a culture already that is way different then Best Buy or Wal-Mart. Gamers work there and it is all about games. Best Buy and Wal-Mart just don't have that culture, buzz, energy or excitement for kids and gamers. This is one area where GME will continue to dominate.

        We have Best Buy, Wal-Mart both near us but with a GME near us as well we have no reason to even think about entering either of those competitors to purchase or trade games. They do not offer anything of superior value compared to Gamestop.

        Also the worry over downloadable games is totally overblown. The wealthy fund managers sitting on their perches on Wall Street don't get it yet but they will and when they do that is the time you'll want to sell your $40+ shares to them.

        Downloadable games cannot be:

        1) Used/Shared on additional consoles in your home or 2nd homes

        2) Cannot be brought to your friends house to play

        These are deal killers. Unless the gaming industry allows downloadable games to do items #1 and #2 above then downloadable games do not make much sense. Alternately they could cut the prices on games in half or by 2/3 so you could buy two to three copies for what you used to pay for one to compensate but I do not see that happening.

        Even if I am wrong 100% on all my points above it will take 2 to 4 years until downloadable games or any of these competitors make a dent in GME's business. At the same time remember Gamestop will be increasing their footprint and potentially following any download option should it get traction along the way. GME could become the iTunes of gaming. Again I think downloadable games fall short of getting the DVD. I have two PS3's and bought a game that we use on either system. However we had to buy TWO sets of downloadable only add ons for each one costing $15.99 each. That does not play well. Sorry downloads.

        Score

        Downloads: 0
        DVD: 1

    • you should do your research...I doubt you bought a million dollars worth of gme....well the cfo did and you got it at a better price....of course...he'll be holding till next christmas 2010....you got that much time? I'd say you're good.
      http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=GME

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