Wed, Dec 24, 2014, 8:48 PM EST - U.S. Markets closed early today

Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

GameStop Corp. Message Board

  • chevyguyss10@rocketmail.com chevyguyss10 Oct 22, 2009 8:55 AM Flag

    ask yourselves -

    What is the hottest gift someone gets a 10 year old to a 25 year old for Christmas? Boy or girl? A game. Teenagers--they are hard to buy for--safe bet--a game. Parents will continue to buy the games. It keeps the kids happy and it's cheap entertainment for them.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Lowering guidance, missing estimates, bad YOY comps, those are all "misses" as far as investors are concerned, and the big money investors are the only people that matter as far as the PPS of this security is concerned. The stock was viewed by most on the street as a growth stock, and was priced accordingly, when you fail to grow as a growth stock bad things begin happening and the stock suffers, that is what has been going on for about the past 6 months.

      You can be happy all you want with your position, fact of the matter is, you could have sold your position and rebought it bigger with the profits multiple times over whenever this stock has gotten a nice pop off of whatever positive industry news has come out or just the general market being overly bullish. Most people on this board seem to believe it is a given that this stock will be $35 in no time, and they refuse to acknowlege any of the evidence that slaps them in the face on a daily basis that points to the contrary. I stand by my analysis that it is a good long term buy, and a bad short term buy. This stock will not have a nice period of growth in the PPS until they deliver on at least one earnings but more than likely it will take 2 in a row to get investors interested again. Just my 2 cents, and I am giving a 2 cent discout today :)

    • "How exactly is this 'lowering their guidance' when this is the first time they announced 09 guidance LOL."

      Err, I gave you the date of the PR for the first 2009 guidance ("at least 25% eps growth") back in March 2008, then you blatantly lie that it doesn't exist?

      Fact is, they've lowered 2009 guidance twice. Initial guidance in March 2008 was high end $2.92. Now it's down to a high end of $2.61. Sure there was a recession, but that's the danger of giving guidance 23 months ahead of time, right? So you have to wonder, was it conservative guidance like Apple and Amazon are known for? Or was it aggressive guidance given for the sole purpose of management selling vast amounts of their own shares to investors who believed in them? I say it was the latter, since management sold big just one month after giving that initial guidance. The end result is investors realize the company gives aggressive guidance and fails to meet that, which isn't good. Much better to UPOD.

    • "can more readily assume that whatever sales it gets is done by taking business away from existing competitors (zero-sum game)."

      I guess it depends on where they are opening the stores. I find it hard to believe it's truly zero sum but I take your point.

      "there's going to be a 15%+ exchange rate bonus for all international stores due to the US$ weakness"

      I've actually been pondering this one recently also. Going into the holiday period the weakness in the USD vs the Euro/AUD etc is gonna be a real boon for GME this year.

    • Sorry, too late at night...

      Correct numbers are;

      9.0% top sales growth
      3.0% same store sales increase
      $.32 EPS

    • "Also forgot, from the positives this Q, that there's going to be a 15%+ exchange rate bonus for all international stores due to the US$ weakness. Since I think 20% of GME's business is international, you're talking an extra 3% in top line sales (and of course corresponding SG&A). No small deal."

      ... So the revised numbers would be:

      12% top sales growth
      3.15% same store sales growth
      Earnings per share of $.35

      Which means we'll definitely beat every metric this Q :)

    • I'm not sure about that: Since the gaming industry is very mature, any new store that opens up doesn't in itself increase industry sales. One can more readily assume that whatever sales it gets is done by taking business away from existing competitors (zero-sum game). And thus, as long as the new store is able to generate a normal volume level (that's really the assumption here), it's numbers can definitely be added to the total.

      Also forgot, from the positives this Q, that there's going to be a 15%+ exchange rate bonus for all international stores due to the US$ weakness. Since I think 20% of GME's business is international, you're talking an extra 3% in top line sales (and of course corresponding SG&A). No small deal.

      Finally, as far as VGChartz is concerned, I agree with you that it's not the most accurate source especially on a weekly basis. However, comparing the delta of 2 longer 12 week periods is relatively accurate and not that materially different from NPD.

      For instance, for software sale, the NPD numbers are -15% in August and +5.4% in September. However, they do not average to -10% for both periods combined, but to -3%, since September sales were 40% higher than August sales. So, it's very close.

    • Alex, seems like a pretty reasonable analysis apart from the fact that you can't use:
      "(-4% industry decrease +6% store # growth)"

      because the 6% store growth is already accounted for to some degree in the industry numbers - since GME has a large market share you should probably adjust for that. It's not a huge impact on revenues but will probably have a measurable effect on earnings.

      Also, trusting VGChartz numbers is always risky :)

    • 2/19/09 lowers guidance to 18%-22% growth

      How exactly is this 'lowering their guidance' when this is the first time they announced 09 guidance LOL. Because forecast growth was lower than the year before? Putting aside the fact that we have clearly been talking about earnings and not growth rates, what exactly do you expect in a recession?

    • "Going forward, they will probably exceed their lowered guidance for Q3 or at least meet the high end."


      Actually, all the info needed to make a quick "guestimate" of their sales numbers is available to us by using the following:

      1) New hardware + new software data from VGChartz for 2008 and 2009. The data is up to date save for the last 2 weeks of October 09 which I would estimate as follows:
      W/O October 24th: 5.1 Million in 09 vs 5.9 Million in 08.
      W/O Nov. 02: 5.5 Million in 09 vs 6.6 Million in 08.

      2) 18% growth in used games sales vs Q2 2008 (info from the last cc).

      3) 6% increase in store number: 6433 vs 6066 (6333 is the current official number but they're supposed to have added around 100 more stores by now - they'll confirm it when they report).

      Based on the above, we get:

      Q3 2009 (estimated)

      New hardware: 334M (-4% industry decrease +6% store # growth)
      New software: 760M (+2% industry growth +6% store # growth)
      Used software: 501 (18% growth as per last cc)
      Other: 247 (+6% store # growth)

      Total: 1842M (8.7% growth vs Q3 2008)
      Same store sales increase: 3% (based on 6066 stores)

      (Plus a probable upside: They could do up to $50M more in used game sales as I have a really hard time thinking that they won't sell as many used games in Q3 as they did in Q2. They did 560M in used games in Q2 09).



      With the above numbers (without the above-mentioned upside), assuming stable margins, a $60M increase in SG&A (due to the higher # of stores) and no more merger related expenses, net earnings should be around $52M (vs $47 in Q3 2008) and earnings per share around $.31.



      Bottom line: Definite growth in Q3, both in revenue and same store sales; EPS at the midpoint of their guidance range (with probable upside due to above mentioned higher used game sales). In my mind, the key number that will act as a big catalyst for the stock price will be the very strong positive same store sales number (at least +3%) which will shine vs their own guidance (-7% to -1%) and the NPD industry numbers.

    • Actually they've lowered the 2009 guidance twice.

      3/18/08 guidance initially given for "at least 25%" growth (on top of then 2008 guidance of $2.25-$2.34, and they ultimately delivered $2.38)

      4/08 *** Management including CFO, CEO and Chairman sells big here

      2/19/09 lowers guidance to 18%-22% growth

      8/20/09 lowers guidance again to flat to 10% growth

      8/24/09 CFO announces he's retiring

    • View More Messages
 
GME
33.39-1.24(-3.58%)Dec 24 1:01 PMEST

Trending Tickers

i
Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.
CalAmp Corp.
NASDAQWed, Dec 24, 2014 1:00 PM EST
Yahoo! Inc.
NASDAQWed, Dec 24, 2014 1:00 PM EST