The fate of Nintendo comes down to the launch of the Wii U. Nintendo is not diversified like SNE or MSFT. If the Wii U flops so will Nintendo. So what is Nintendo’s plan; to double down on retail ie GME. Nintendo will be launching an in store digital kiosk like the impulse kiosk to go along with their physical discs. They are not making digital exclusive like PSN and Xbox live they are allowing retail to get a piece. As Nintendo goes so goes the industry, I see MSFT and SNE implementing such kiosks with the next consoles. So now GME will have both the high margin used and high margin digital in stores.
I have mentioned before that the Wii U will have NFC chips inside it that will allow it to act like Skylanders. Physical toys will hold digital data. You can see it in action in this video at 1:18 http://www.gonintendo.com/?mode=viewstory&id=176313 This will be huge and I can see DLC becoming plastic figurines with the data inside. And from the video it seems the toys are not limited to characters but also items. You could possibly see games with 100s of figurines that GME will sell.
The analysts are expecting abysmal Wii U numbers one analyst has them selling only 35% of what the Wii did. The numbers and expectations for GME are so low, people think they will be out of business in 3 years, that a small beat in earnings could be a 5 to 10 point jump. Part of the reason why Apple does so well is they have a new item launching almost every 6 months allowing them to always be in the news and get hype. New consoles will reinvigorate the video game market. There is nothing the media loves more than to show than long lines outside of Apple stores. With the launch of the Wii U you will see those lines in front of GME stores.