So the GME nightmare is beginning to unfold:
- Launch titles are terrible on both consoles. Check 'em out if you dont believe me.
- The big current releases BF4 (bad reviews, terrible sales) COD:G (terrible users; terrible pre-orders) are selling way, way off. (Note the ATVI press release about channel stuffing).
- The new consoles show up with hardly any reason to buy them. Slightly better graphics, at best. All the real games run on old and new gen so no game reason to buy new. Why buy next gen?
- Industry gets stuck: games need platforms so hard to spend a lot of money on a title for new platform with poor installed base. Old consoles were dying anyway but slowly.
- Nintendo already dead except for handhelds. Wii literally dead and WiiU not far behind.
- Weak 2014 line up getting delayed: Destiny; Titanfall; WD; are a ways off now. GTA VI is five years away.
- Meanwhile the beat goes on: digital pct of sales rising; game streaming; Steam/PC; Apple; mobile; alt consoles; indie; downloading games on the new consoles; F2P; DLC.
Just waiting for the roof to fall in. Q1 2014 looks like it.
i agree that sometime over the coming 4 months is the inflection point in the fortunes of gamestop. as soon as apple really launches their gaming initiative, that will suck away players and development, the new consoles offer nothing that compelling, just slightly better graphics. the double-edged sword of better graphics is that development costs are higher for new launches, which means less of them. and there is almost zero truly innovative new games on the consoles, because it is too bloody expensive to develop a new title, so they can only justify it for franchises. all the real innovation is happening on digitial platforms where gamestop has minimal presence. as games transition away from a physical disc, gamestop's profit engine of used games will go away. gamestop has fixed expenses that cant be reduced as sales drop and once it is no longer cash flow positive, they will have to stop the dividend and stock repurchase program. the only thing in their favor is that the management team has proven to be very adaptable, but even they cant adapt fast enough to save the company. the only question to figure out is where exact the top is???
after looking at the launch numbers a bit closer, i think the top in gamestop is still 6 months away. the initial launches look to beat previous years, so that will keep gamestop rolling for a while. hold off on those shorts, there is upside potential for the next six months.
profit taking today. People getting nervous before earnings. heading back down imo and break into 40's and even lower when earnings come out. stopped by a few gamestop stores and everything is discounted just to get business. amazon and best buy giving GME a run for their money
It's not discounted to bring in business, it's discounted to get it out of the way for the new stuff. Board has done 2/1 stocks splits at $54 in past and if they do so again at earnings, this stock could double again in 6months given growth projections. Not enough high speed broadband throughout the country till 2017 for digital downloads to make any impact.