I can't believe they have sold this thing down so far. They got the clinical hold removed, but they sell it because GILD's data is so good. So we're supposed to believe that all the other big pharma companies are going to stop all development in HCV and let GILD have it all? You have to be kidding me! We know from the INHX deal that there was someone else ready to write a check for $2.5 billion. Of course they will look at IDIX. Just because 184 is not as potent at INHX or VRUS's drugs does not mean that it is not critical to an all oral regimen. My guess is that when you pair this with a potent PI or NS5A inhibitor that you will get great cure rates. The most important thing nucs bring to the table is their high barrier to resistance. Without that you can have a very potent drug but get high relapse rates. If any other company wants to have a prayer of being competitive with GILD or BMY they better have a nuc. Realistically there is only one left. We'll see if the Alios nucs at VRTX are worth anything, but those probably aren't partnerable anyways since VRTX will study them with Incivek and '222. Novartis, Merck, GSK, JNJ, Roche, and Abbott are all highly interested in HCV. You can bet that they all want a shot to see how 184 works with their respective drugs. That is what is happening now. Once one of them sees strong early data you can bet that a deal will be in the works. It might take a couple months, but patience here will pay off. I guess we're just getting the weak hands out of the name who don't really know why they bought in the first place. Patience and buying on dips will pay off here.
GILD news was good for all the Hep C players. Double nuke back bone failed because of PSI 839 although Alios/VRTX is trying purine and pyrimidine combo (yrs away). Nuke mono therapy is proven to be imperfect.
We are back to nuc + PI + NS5A + non nuc mix and match combo Whose combo will carry what specific indication label will be very interesting in the future. Whoever covers broader population will be the true winner because subsets such as AIDS, methadone, cirrhotic will be just a small segment only.
What will be FDA decision? Pan genotype labeling vs. GT specific labeling.
FDA lift on IDX 189 got buried by GS 7977. It can happen again by PII INX 189 on GT 2/3 result.
Great summary. First generatin PI's geneally don't mix well with nuc. INX 189 didn't work well with Incivek. Although INHX said it worked with Victrellis, but further detail was not disclosed. My guess is "not so great" Hence BMY signed the deal with INHX not MRK. PI seems to be rate limiting the coversion of protides in vivo. BMY and GILD are taking a shot at "single drug with or without RVB" BMY will use 189 plus RVB alone and with their NS5A. INX 189 may come out with 100% remission in GT 2/3 soon. This can be another negative blow to IDX 189.
ABT may hit the market with first oral combo, but it is so vernerable to GILD without nuc. they have NS5A from Enanta. MRK and JNJ are coming out with potent 2nd gen PI's. No one knows how this will panout with nucs.
IDX184 has it's value in resistance profile, not in it's potency. IF SVR12 in first 31 pt expected in end of this month achieving 85 to 90% range will kill all the sell side firms. Remember they need 184 as a patch, not a front runner
If you don't believe in single drug therapy for Hep C, buy IDIX. All the big boys don't!!! They don't think "single agent" will wipe them all out. After this nuc consolidation is completed, good report card will decide the fate of each players. Then "PRICE WAR" beacuse their score card probaly will be neck to neck rat race. I don't believe in perfact score in Hep C with so many variables in population.