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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

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  • smartbbfool smartbbfool Jun 8, 2005 6:52 PM Flag

    Long term valuation

    Using mid-range estimate for this year (below consensus estimate) and long term growth rate of 11.2%, this stock is worth a MINIMUM of $26.6 and possibly $31.5 when cash is taking into account. This estimate is base on no good news or upside surprises.

    This is a relatively safe stock to buy for now. Some people mentioned about cheap foreign knockoff of Teva and UGG as a concern but let's face it, how many people who plan to by Nike, Addidas or Reebok (and who can afford it) is going to buy a cheap unknown brand? There will be knock-off and people buying them, but that is not the group of Teva and UGG's focus customers.

    In my point of view, there are 2 types of companies that can survive in any environment, the highly prestigious brands and the lowest cost companies, anything in the middle just get bullied by both group. Decker brands have emerged into the first group in a very short time and that is an accomplishment of a great company.

    The Simple brand is the tricky part of the company. I know that is for the anti-brand people but Decker need to put a little twist to its design to distinguish it from the thousands of footwear manufacturer out there.

    One thing that Decker need to watch out for are companies like Merrell who have great designs and innovation.

 
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