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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

  • longshore007 longshore007 Jun 8, 2005 9:03 AM Flag

    Long term valuation

    Any estimates on how much this company could be worth. I realize they won't be the next Nike, but any guesses and supporting arguments?

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    • i'll certainly agree to that...

      but even the "strategy" that resulted in that -63 was "tried and proven" for several years BEFORE that -63 and was proven to 'beat the street' with several more positives than negatives...

      i wish i could remember what "exactly" resulted in that -63 and +87 'cause even my 9/11 quarter only dropped -23.24% (followed by some 'rocky' pluses and minus)...

      i'm sure i "probably" changed my strategy at the time, though i don't "distinctly" recall doing so - it was probably more of a "tweak" on my screening process than anything, with the overall "strategy" remaining 'almost' identical...

      if it isn't broke, don't fix it...

      keep in mind that a 63% loss is *NOT* a "loss" UNTIL a 'sell' is put in...

      that 63% "loss" was more than likely ONLY 'on paper' and it BOUNCED the following quarter...

      of course, the 87% "gain" is *NOT* a "gain" UNTIL a 'sell' is put in either...

      without a sell, it's all just paperwork...

    • Well, your other quarters look much better. It is important in investing to have a consistent strategy to provide a consistent return.

      Of course if long term return beats S&P it is not bad, however nothing is guaranteed, how do you know you will after you lose 63% in one quarter? Without knowing you will gain 87% in next quarter it is something to worry about and give yourself a second thinking of your investing strategy.

    • ps2 - that -62 and +86 was certainly an exception...

      i don't have anything else anywhere near +/- even 30% in a given quarter...

      practically everything else is in the +/- 5 to 15 percent range for the quarter, with a few 15 to 25's...

      no, i don't "like" to see a -23% quarter, but i have never lost a moments sleep over it...

    • ps - not painful in the least...

      ONLY INVEST RISK CAPITAL!
      I don't "need" the money I have in the market for another 40 years or so - why should I 'worry' about the fluctuations so long as the long term status remains ABOVE that of the S&P?

    • let's not forget the surrounding quarters...

      98Q4 +10.28%
      99Q1 +14.26%
      99Q2 -62.31%
      99Q3 +85.73%
      99Q4 +9.75%
      00Q1 +10.47%
      00Q2 +16.75


      feel free to report back to me with your math...

    • So you run a roller coaster trip with your portfolio all the time? You must have a strong nerve to allow your portfolio to lose 62.31% in one quarter and gain 85.73% in the following quarter. Isn't that painful? Let's do the math:
      (1-62.31%)*(1+85.73%) = 0.70
      So you still lose 30% after these 2 turbulent quarters. Ouch!

    • listen, i don't need to detail out my "entire" portfolio strategy - but since you insist...

      roughly 65% of my portfolio is Long Term holdings, 25% is Short Term "plays", and 10% is cash...

      over the course of my investing life (January of 1994 to present), i have done quite well in 'tracking the S&P'...

      on a quarterly basis, i've had some great ones, and i've had some bad ones (i'd be lying to you if i said otherwise)...

      my "best" quarter was the third quarter of 1999 when i returned +85.73% (yes, accounting for commissions, capital gains taxes, et cetera)... the S&P for the same EXACT quarter was DOWN -6.56%...

      my "worst" quarter was, ironically, the previous quarter, the second quarter of 1999, when i lost -62.31% in contrast to the S&P's +6.71%...

      i certainly did not intend on turning this board into some sort of 'bragging rights' outlet - but all in all, my trade tracking spreadsheet reports that i have beat the S&P by 'respectable' margins for EVERY one of the S&P's positive years... granted, for the negative years, and for those negatives where i was only a few percentage points away from the S&P, i do have two years where i lost by a 'unrespectable' margin (and i'd be lying to you if i reported otherwise)...

      but all in all, for the 'life of the portfolio', i'm doing BETTER than the S&P...

      with greater risk comes greater rewards...
      i'm not saying to 'bet on the 100-to-1 horse', but if you want to 'beat the street', you are NOT going to do it by 'buying and holding' the 'respectable' Long Term holders like GE, C, GM, PFE, et cetera...

    • You won't be able to sustain anywhere near those returns. I bet the S&P 500 outperforms you over the next 10 years if you keep gambling like you describe.

    • in regards to 1), 2), and 3) - don't worry, all accounted for...

      the Rule of 72 and 10% was really only for sake of example - i actually aim for only 2.5% to 3.5% per trade, quite a bit "easier"...

      not "automatic" by any screening process, but "easier"...

      in regards to tax brackets, there are three below me and three above me...

      i'll pay TWICE the capital gains ANY day when the portfolio returns 100% on S/T 'plays' versus the 'average' buy-and-hold L/T barely into the double-digits in regards to ROI...

      i used to teach algebra and trigonometry part-time while putting myself through college, i have Excel spreadsheets that'll make your head spin (no, not a put-down of any kind, just trying to illustrate the complixity of my trade tracking spreadsheet and its factoring in of S/T versus L/T capital gains, commission fees, IRR, ROI, weekly/monthly/quarterly/yearly gains/losses, with end-of-year taxes calculated after every trade, inflation data, you name it, no stone is left unturned)...

    • oh good grief...

      and a Buffalo Nickel would have ran you 5 cents... in 1938...

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DECK
76.86Apr 17 4:00 PMEDT

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