I live in Manhattan and Mahhattan sets the trends. Uggs were popular 3 years ago.Uggs have cycled out any woman of fashion no longer wears them since they are old news.
Riding boots are the new trend and the only people wearing Uggs are Jerseyites who do not have fashion sense and teenages. Those women now are seeing the new styles and copying. Uggs Sales have nowhere to go but down especially since there is now Bearpaw and Emu as cheaper options.
It is a dying Fad. And this is the short level I have been looking for.
I've been working some P/T over at Dicks Sporting Goods Long Island and these boots are selling faster then anything I have ever seen. Even today with all the economic news, they are selling very well, just to bad they didnt have 10 times the inventory, because we are sending customers away. The Uggs are still in high demand.
NOW I get it trad. You're one of those old guys. When you were a kid you said that Japanese products are junk and they would "certainly" never make a car as good as a Ford or Chevy.
It's a new world. When someone comes along and makes a quality boot that catches on and sells it for a lower price than an Ugg, you're right! Decker will still be making boots, just not as many and not at the same margin. When that happens, DECK is in the teens.
Recent events prove that there's a time to sell EVERY stock. Deck is down 60% off it's high this year. If you don't believe it can be down another 60% next year, then there's nothing else I can say.
I'd say we differ in timing, but then my 401K looks like it will end up plus 3 or 4 percent this year.
It's sad to see people married to a stock and an idea. You sound like those who talked about GM, Merrill Lynch, Citi, and dozens of other "quality" stocks years ago.
Unfortunately, many marriages end up in ugly and expensive divorces.
no. not holding at this time. I'm a 30yr retail vet - all yrs in shooz.
your comment, "one product" is why I said what I did.
since when are shooz a fad? certain styles can be a fad yes, but, hiking footwear, cold weather footwear, sandals?? don't know what backwoods holler you live? up here in MI we wear shooz always.
choose you words a wee bit more carefully and perhaps you won't sound so chicky.
If you believe UGGs will top out in 2-4 quarters then you should be selling DECK.
The market looks 6-12 months into the future. Stocks start heading lower before the fundamentals do.
As for new products, forget it. DECK gets a vast majority of their revenues from UGGS. Their other lines barely make a dent. When UGGS is over, so is DECK.
the whole world and everything in it cycles.
yes, I understand what you're saying about the top, but, was last dec the top for deck's uggs? was 7700 in oct the bottom? was it the 7300 last month? or it it yet 2come?
imo professional "opinion," the ugg line is a trend and not a fad. it will top out in the next 2-4 quarters. however, I see it generating sustained revenues for many yrs beyond that.
poor results? that's not an issue for now. who's to say that angel isn't already ahead of the curve and has the company's next "new" product line a'comin?
dude if you live in manhattan, which i highly doubt, and you are not seeing uggs all over the place, then you probably live near port authority
fwiw, i see uggs on just about every single woman who passes me and deck is building awesome store right in heart of uws
>>>>>>>>>>>Retailers have become increasingly promotional as consumers hold back on spending during what is expected to be one of the worst holiday season in many years.
Two exceptions appeared to be Deckers Outdoor Corp.'s UGGs brand of sheepskin shoes and boots and American Apparel Inc., which sells cotton T-shirts and apparel, which were generating "solid" business at full price, Slater said <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Do you believe that ????????
I do NOT.......GL