cool analysis again...you're right it is not fool proof...So do you ever buy any stocks prior to earnings to capture the extreme upside move if a positive report is the case. Or do you use extreme discipline and buy before( or into ) and after earnings..which r less points but safer???...any more thoughts??...thx
If that were 100% possible, we would all be billionaires. ;)
You have to make a judgement based on what you think they will earn in the future based on the past, based on competitors, based on retail outlets that sell UGGS (nordstroms sales numbers)......but there is not full proof way.
Thats why i only hold minute amounts of investments during earnings.
You usually get your best movements into...and after. Holding during....is like gambling to me personally, so thats why i sell most everything and only play with house money if possible.
I totally agree and same with LULU when it does report..but as price runs up pre-report is there more risk sell off in news???...that happened with NIKE last qtr...the expectations were so high..any thoughts???....
Heres what you have to consider with any stock....
1. Is it priced to perfection going into earnings. back in oct/2010...apple had a run from 235 to 320 in 8 weeks. It was priced to perfection. It reported great, but not good enough for a 320 price. It lost $23 the next day....but rebounded and passed 320 by the next earnings period.
Is deck priced to perfection? The higher the price gets...the less that can go wrong at earnings and it doesnt sell off. Just keep that in mind.
2. Can the company keep growing in the future at the same or higher rate. This is the most important thing at earnings to watch. If they say they made 100% more profit, but forcast 10% less sales in 2011...its going to tank. The past doesnt matter....