timberland blew out numbers -- deck will crush them
VERY insightful....but did you say if price runs up pre-earnings it is relatively safer??? but isn't the opposite true?? a la AAPL and NKE into earnings...PLEASE clarify....and I totally agree about the GROWTH PROJECTION and most importantly guidance..thx....
I said the higher the stock runs before earnings, the more it is priced to perfection.
If a stock is $50 and it moves to $55 before earnings and earnings come out and it should be a $60 stock based on forecasts in the future...its going to move up quickly after earnings. It WAS NOT priced to perfection before the earnings were released.
If a stock is $50 and it moves to $75 going into earnings....and earnings says based on forecasts it should be $73...its going to sell off hard. IT WAS priced to perfection, meaning it had to crush every metric to make its $75 value a true reflection of worth.
If DECK is a $100 stock and we are sitting at $88...then its going to run...if its a $100 stock and we are at $100...then it CANT MISS ANY metric, or it sells of hard.
In short I guess it all comes down to managing EXPECTATONS???...and so how can you tell...especially where the stock price should be prior to earnings??? last QTR I got slammed on AAPL..they reported an awesome QTR... I like your analysis..any more thoughts??....thx