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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

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  • scootr1971 scootr1971 Apr 2, 2012 4:58 PM Flag

    shorts are going to ride it into earnings

    Be gentle with me folks as I am a noob in the investing world.
    While I would probably agree with many of the projected 5 yr numbers they are only "projected" best guesses based on past performance of a brand that might be considered in the stage of a fad. Depends on what you read. All that aside...if the market is looking at the short term numbers we still have one more BAD quarter coming. Over the last two years the coming quarter has been the worst. What catalysts do you see out there to shake the shorts out of their positions until fall numbers improve?

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    • As window pointed out, the idea of UGGS being a FAD has been pointed out from the day everyone noticed it become popular years ago. Yes, the FAd ain't over yet.

      What you ae saying Scootr is basically something that can be said about ANY business in the market. It is the reason they call it a PROJECTION and not an ACTUALITY. Because all companies in any industry can do is project into the future.

      But the big thing to me is that management has raised its estimates for 2015 from 2B to 2.4B and this is probably coming from already revised estimates from years ago(the 2b number before UGGS became this popular). Also, management doesn;t want egg on their face. I've said this before; it isn;t in management's interest to look like fools by raising the estimates 20% two years out only for 2015 to roll around and they look like $$$T. So the incentive to management is usually to be conservative and have a "surprise" rather than go out on a limb and come out with egg on their face. So imo management is letting us, the investors, in on some knowledge and numbers that we clearly haven;t/can;t crunch by raising the estimates higher. It's always a good thing when management raises estimates higher, especially in these "difficult" economic times.


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