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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

  • tvn601 tvn601 Oct 26, 2012 5:29 PM Flag

    I am stupid long here ---deep underwater---Need experience investors advice--Thank you in advance

    My entry point was $60 - Should I sell and move on or hold? Thanks

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    • This has happened to anyone who is honest. If the sinking stock price had meant DECK was going out of business, advice would be to take your loss and move on. Being down 1/3 much better than down 1/2 when the stock was $30. The stock is running now, so I wouldn't sell. One way to deal with the problem is to buy calls if you feel fairly sure you are near the bottom. Of course, the problem lies in knowing that. I usually buy a few calls and if the stock falls to ridiculous levels and I have the nerve, I buy a few more. I wouldn't buy more here after the stock has had nearly a 10 pt move. I plan to watch for the volume to slow and the market rally to slow and buy a few puts, hopefully a few points higher. Good luck.

    • If you do not know why you bought at $60, you should not have bought them in the first place. Only people who knew why they bought in the first place would know what to do at any given point of time afterwards.

      If you think you can invest by seeking advice from random strangers here, each of whom has various motives and intellectual capacity, then you should not be buying any stock at all.

      Do not want to be harsh to you, but I have been.

    • buy some tomorrow

    • Do exactly opposite what most of posters say.

    • also, if you don't have additional money to triple down, and you still believe in this company, you can sell the shares right now, and use the money to buy Call Options for 6, or 12 months from now. You should get your money back with huge interests.

    • 1. You should have stopped out a long time ago, you're down 50%, stock has to increase 100% for you to breakeven

      2. Double your position or start buying call options 6 months out

      • 1 Reply to rovismitt
      • Advice: Never put more than 10% of your stock trading money in one stock. ( ie: diversify..! )
        Advice:Always pay close attention to the "short %" on a stock when you buy it. ( assume you went long on a stock with a large short position WITHOUT understanding the reasons it was being shorted )
        Advice: Don't become confused by the strange concept of "Averaging Down" ,, that's quite silly if it voilates the diversification rule I mention above... and in line with the cliche about "Throwing good money after bad"...
        Advice: DO NOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES BECOME EMOTIONALLY TIED TO A PARTICULAR STOCK, (oh, I just LUV UGGs, they feel so sensual on my feet ) OR FEEL THAT YOU HAVE TO HOLD ONTO IT TO PROVE SOME KIND OF EGO POINT THAT YOU WERE RIGHT ALL ALONG AND ITS OTHERS THAT ARE DUMB. ,ACCEPT THAT YOU WERE WRONG AT AN EARLIER POINT WITH A SMALLER PERCENTAGE LOSS AND MOVE ON You are much farther ahead this way, smaller losses to recoup...

    • Stock came down to a 200MA on the monthly chart. This is great support at this level. For new investor, this is a great buy today at 29.5/sh. For you, I don't know how many shares you got, but I would triple down here, so your average will be 40/sh. That would put you in a great position. 6/months from now you will be laughing to the bank. The short level for this stock is 44%, that is huge and they have to cover it soon. I think this is the bottom for it. The market in general will rebound soon also and will pull this stock up. Winter is coming also, and last but not least, they reported good earning this quarter.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to tenlee2003
      • Wow, you clearly read nothing in the report. They beat on EPS mainly due to a wasted $ share buyback and were over 10% light on revenues. Cost cutting and share buybacks only work so long - the revs cut and the margins were extremely light. The downward guidance was also a major concern - this looks like the RIMM of apparel right now. Do you even pay attention to fashion? The leather riding boot is still in style, the UGG is becoming an endangered species.

        Shorts also don't have to cover soon - many are so far ahead they can sit on this until it is under 20, and the PE means nothing as the company just simply decays.

        Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • if you think its going down then sell; otherwise keep

      • 1 Reply to rajoilprasad
      • I find most of the advice here very novice and without any real look at the stock - people are just saying buy moe or buy calls without any analysis of the conf call or the newest guidance. People who expect this thing to bounce back to the $60 range, or even back above $40 are delusional. The 6-12 month calls may work to a certain degree if it pops into the high $30s, but realize you will pay a time premium for these calls and it would need to pop hard.

        The cut in guidance tells me things are going to get worse before better. This is the 4th Q in a row they have cut and it does not seem to be stabilizing at all. PE does not matter for a company with hard-falling sales - look at RIMM for an example of what happens when a company experiences entropy and has nothing new entering the market. This was a FAD - it ended last Winter and has been downhill. There is nothing reinventing the market for UGGS or DECK.

        To say the shorts "have to cover" is nonsense as well - why on earth would they cover at 30 when they can do it at 20? Some will walk away, but after that report most will just ride this one down further.

        I first saw this tanking last year as an instructor at Purdue University - Winter before (Jan 2011) 1/2 the girls were wearing them, and then Jan 2012 hits and about 1-3 total students in a class of 200 are wearing them. The style is gone. The leather riding boots have claimed this piece of the market from DECK. If this goes into the mid $30s, exit - take the tax loss for the year and remember tomorrow is another trading day.

 
DECK
90.50+5.27(+6.18%)Jul 25 4:00 PMEDT

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