I am not writing to gloat but to simply say that listening to some helpful REAL advice from somebody in the business might have spared some major losses. Was merely trying to help YOU from getting the old WS screw.. been there and know the feeling.. shared last Dec 2012 when the stock was over $115 to get out, the boots were dead.
This year.. Only a brutally cold winter might help. Consumers are NOT buying this year. Used to be bought like crazy for back to school - dead now. Prices cut. Simple. Only reason prices are cut in fashion/footwear is b/c they are not going.
Not really. The point of my December 2012 (10 months ago w/ follow-ups..) (which was pre-Q4 earnings thus a fair warning) post was that the stock was over-hyped and real-world fall/holiday sales would never live up to the media hype. Of course nobody believed me. Again in March and April the board laughed away.. Not so now.
Why would shoppers buy FLEECE boots during back to school shopping you ask? Because it's a FASHION statement (that died over the last few years - fleece is not a big item now..) and the last winters before that were brutal. Last year winter ended up being extremely mild = low winter boot/warm boot sales across the board.
In many areas it is acceptable to wear knock-offs.. The new must-have fad gadgets are tech, not $200 boots that become sponges when wet.
This year you ask? Items that CAN be discounted in the channel. Not looking great out there. Should we get dumped on w / tons of snow... then go to the mall, movies SEVERAL times.. scan the footwear.. and look for AUTHENTIC boots.. then you will have a REAL idea of what the Quarter will look like.
The purpose of the initial post and any subsequent posts was a real-world reality check . Not some #$%$ Fast Money hype that causes ppl to buy why the big boys are dumping. Why the warning, b/c we've all been bag holders.. It juts depends how long you wanna hold the bag.
Believe me.. if they were selling and there was a really hot footwear product, I'd be a lot happier..