they underguided on purpose. #1 they understand they have been wrong so may times, they need to be conservative, #2, contrary to what everyone says, Uggs will be around for a long time (I poll people in my travels and I believe the average person, not some analyst who has conflicts of interest, and #3, the world economy sucks and will get better once the election is over I hope :)Has no one figured that out yet. We may see $20 and we may see $50 and we may see both in the next 12 months but that's why you use options to hedge yourself. Happy Trading.
If the economy was doing great I would agree but people are curtailing spending. Yes the peak growth rate has come and gone but Uggs will have decent growth and that combined with the other lines will work. I am looking at shorting KORS and LULU now as they are just as prone to the downside. My breakeven on DECK is $33 as I was writing calls for 4 months so it hasn't hurt that much.
yes, "Uggs will be around for a long time". Nobody doubts that.
But keep in mind Uggs original function and appeal was as "after surfing" and "after skiing' footwear.
The brand Uggs was around for decades selling only to those small niche markets. It was only whensome Hollywood celeb women started wearing Uggs for fsahion that the brand achieved large volume sales.
Now that the fashion fad has passed I expect Ugg brand to go back to its root sales, which is relatively small sales for "apre surf" and "apres ski" users. Ugg brand sales can easily decline by 50% in one year, and then decline again 50% the following year.
For Deckers to grow the company really needs its other brands , Teva and Sanuk, to double and triple their respective annual sales. But that will take some improved product design and at least a couple of years time.