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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

  • punbr punbr Nov 2, 2012 5:51 PM Flag

    Who was it who wanted to look at other names longs here might recommend?

    I think DECK will work out by Christmas, and if the pps languishes will strongly consider buying calls ahead of the next earnings report. Why? Because management offered dismal guidance. With the bar set low, it won't take much from earnings to get a nice pop. But I definitely plan to go to some outlets selling UGGS and try to get a feel for how sales are going.

    My AAPL is getting clobbered, but I also expect it to turn higher during the holiday shopping. But I am beginning to be dubious re a great future for the stock (over $700). It gets harder to innovate and set yourself apart after the wheel has already been invented. Now if they ever work out some massive deal to roll out AAPL TV with integration of various platforms, then we could be off to the races again.

    EVEP that I suggested is working out, even with this downturn. They are about to pay a dividend and I'll buy more if it dips a couple bucks from here.

    But the best way to make $$$ I have found is buying puts on VXX. If you look at a long term chart you will see it has fallen from around $200 a year ago to mid 30's currently. Over time it is headed toward zero. VXX is an ETF based on volatility that drops dramatically when the market surges. Just take a look at yesterday. Of course, there is risk if the market completely tanks and volatility spikes. Because of that risk I play this on a small scale and use options so that risks are limited. The ideal situation is a reversal day when things look ugly and then buyers start coming in to support the market. VXX falls hard when this happens. I currently have a few Nov $36 puts, but will add some Dec puts if the market tanks again next week.

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