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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

  • punbr punbr Nov 7, 2012 10:32 AM Flag

    Annoying to see our move suspended. Probably too far too fast.

    Hopefully sales pick up through the holidays and someone notices and upgrades the stock. If you believe this market swoon is overdone, consider the VXX puts. As volatility pulls back they ramp. I made 20% in a few days, took profit yesterday in fear of today, and now am starting a small position again. Bought some VXX Dec $38 puts at $5.00. This ETF is rigged to take money from longs, so is a great long term play on the short side.

    Any thoughts from longs here about how far this selloff goes, both for DECK and the market?

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    • Market's a bit neurotic here, imo; It demands many rounds of quantitative easing to "juice itself", yet if Romney would have been elected, Bernanke was said to have been shown the door.

      The PPS with DECK, doesn't really have anything to do with the fundamentals of the Co. per se; It's more related to "why not short-it and take big profits on a day when such can easily be done"? It had a nice mini-run, and if you looked at the daily chart, it was begging for a big knock-down...shorts were chomping for a day that provided such cover-to-massacre!

      Blue-blood money is vindictive here too! I do think you'll see a big up-tick toward the close!

      Longer-term, I think an Obama win is better for the economy, b/c there's more of a "long-term structural healing" taking place, instead of an abrupt "change-of-course" inherent in a Romney administration. People and the Market know what they're getting with Obama...with Romney, all that's immediately known is that "big-money's-best-interest" are cuddled! This is just a knee-jerk reaction to "big-blue-blood-money" on the Street! They're #$%$...and it's showing!

      • 2 Replies to american_chariot
      • Just want to add, my comments above are a bit "simplistic and immature", although not entirely wrong; I think this huge Market decline also screams to Obama: "you have no mandate", our problems are "real, big, and in need of non-partisan resolution", yet here we are divided as never before, and do we really trust Obama to be a "uniter"? If we were speaking of Bill Clinton, I'd say we could believe in such an effort to step-across-the-isle, and while I don't think Obama is vindictive politically, I do think he's powerless to get conservative Republicans behind just about any policies he may promulgate! It's a complex reality we face; I would have liked to have been able to vote for Romney actually, but I couldn't stomach the Republican party's insistence to court the far-right's agenda! I know Romney isn't as "right" as he had to make himself out to order to appease the radical arm of his base! Hay, you don't run Massachusetts successfully by being "far-right" and un-able to cross the isle.

        Personally I define myself as "fiscally conservative" (not in the sense of big-tax-breaks for the super-rich though, quite contrary...I don't see how you honestly face the deficits we are dealing-with, by extending tax-cuts that were only ever designed to be temporary, and by increasing the military budget by $1-trillion at a time where it's not needed!) But I'm a bit of a social radical...I support a woman's right to choose, decriminalization of marijuana across the board, gay-union (not marriage---don't believing in calling a "gay's union" marriage, b/c that has always been defined by a connection between 'man-and-woman'; But how we can deny the same civil rights between same-sex-unions, is way wrong, imo! In simple, give rights, but don't call it what it isn't: marriage! Rather, civil union!

        Also, I'm a rabid environmentalist, and I applaud Bloomberg's change-of-vote to Obama, b/c of the reality of Sandy! BTW, we just had an all-time high temp here in the mid-south just a few days ago! Plus, I applaud Obama's "more study (putting-off) the Keystone Pipeline, b/c it prays on some of the most carbon intensive activity to produce oil, that of developing the great tar sands in Alberta, and destroying the great northern boreal forest in the process! I really applaud Obama for standing-up to big-oil on this issue! Still, promoting alternative energy sources, when it's not all that popular...increasing cafe standards, promoting solar, wind, hydro!----I'm proud of his efforts in this regard! Still, clean-coal! I support coal, and coal miners, but not run-away dirty coal-fired power plants! I way support nat-gas, and I think almost all big-rigs on the road today should be burning CNG, but I'm wary about improper regulations that allow people to "set-their-water-on-fire" out of the faucet, b/c of underground gas-leaking and contamination from chemically intensive and sometime polluting "fracking" practices! I certainly don't support "giving-away" public lands to the oil-industry, then turning our heads when people are contaminated from their non-regulated practices! Yet at the same time, I yearn to burn CNG in my own truck, and pay $1.25-a-gallon and produce half-the-exhaust! Yet I know things aren't that simple, b/c if everyone were burning nat-gas, it surely wouldn't be selling for $1-something-a-gallon!

        But I don't fool myself in thinking that Obama is a "business man", for that he's not! I don't think he personally understands how to best conduct business, nor the importance of buttressing business with good policy! Hay, how could he, he's never operated a personal small business! He's more of a "social organizer"! Yet, I think it's unfortunate that the idea of "restoring good business principles" was predicated on the idea of the super-flawed notions of 'big-continued-tax-breaks" for the super rich, and increasing our military budget "just b/c you want to appear strong-on-defense" and give the defense industry fee run of Washington! Our military is as strong as ever, imo, and it doesn't need an additional $1-trillion in funding!

        There are my personal thoughts, and in relation to DECK, it's selling off "just b/c they could", imo! Not b/c Uggs aren't "hot sellers", for they truly are...big time, again this year! Buy, imo!

      • People who think Obama winning will be less tumultuous are wrong. The economy will start to suffer as all of the other "Obama-care" steps start to kick in. The costs to do business are very high. Companies will leave and restructure, while many others will now have mostly part time employees to get around the added costs and penalties of the health care laws. This will force tons of people into the govt. single payer pool. I don't think unemployment will go down from these levels for quite a long time.

        Sentiment: Hold

    • I don't think it was to fast. Many people here are going to take profits before end of year and re-position in light of the tax changes being implemented. They (gov) will have to do something now soon in order to stabilize. If they act shortly we should see a lot of money on the side come into the market. I see Deck as a steady mover into 40's possibly by year end.

      Sentiment: Hold

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