This dog isn't going to go anywhere unless there is a buyout.
Sure, DECK is a luxury brand. But right now, most of people already have Ugg boots, and they are not going to buy any more unless there are bargains. Ugg boot FAD is going down the drain. That's why there won't be any strong growth that people want to see in coming years. Sure they will sell some boots in this holiday, but its sale won't be good as what most people hope for.
So, what's the stock worth even with "regular-strong-sales"? How can Jeffrie's $50-dollar-target and analysis be so off? BTW, their assessment is a bit more profound than yours...but I don't entirely disagree with your disparagement...b/c from an investment perspective, I'm "stuck", yet I still feel I'll get my money back + some! Could be wrong with that...a "speculative guess", nonetheless!
What are you "in-it-for", what's your target? How do you plan to make $$$ here with DECK?
It's too cheap to short, imo, esp. with"buy-out potential". At $50-60 with your thesis, it may propose "shorting potential", otherwise, one's just throwing-darts at daily gyrations. I guess you could argue that it's "fairly valued" and won't budge from here, but I tend to believe in a goodly bounce based on what DECK is doing to be more than it has been in the past. That long-line to get-in a Uggs branded store should tell you something. And, FYI, girls buy many pairs of Uggs and replace them fairly regularly!
Yes, I could see the brand becoming unfashionable, but it's not this year!