Retail sales of UGGs have only a small (though still important) impact on DECK earnings in Q4. Earnings primarily reflect wholesale revenues from earlier in the fall. Retail sales are important only for reorder business and direct sales by UGG in UGG stores and online in the UGG website.
I have seen some evidence of reordering, but not as much as I'd like. For example, Zappos is presently out of a number of sizes in women's Classic UGG Shorts. Hopefully they'll reorder soon, but those reorder sales will go into Q1, not Q4 or this year's earnings. (Zappos did some reordering about a month ago to fill similar gaps.)
The point above has been made on this board before -- most emphatically by Pinkerton. If you read this Pinkerton, please let us know what you have learned from your colleagues in the footwear business. Surely you have now turned more positive. My readings indicate that sales are definitely quite robust this year -- not only in women's boots but in the men's and children's lines and in slippers (which some board people might not realize are major element in UGG revenues).