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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

  • anhui23 anhui23 Dec 30, 2012 1:55 PM Flag

    UGG in Switzerland

    I live in Zürich , we dont have UGG shops, only resellers. I was in one of them in a mall ,asked one clerk how business is doing: he said they never sold so many boots like this,year.
    On the other hand, with a record short interest in DECK, I can not imagine they dont know something more. I hold a small long position in the stock (bought at 38), I think the stock could reach 55 during 2013.
    Thank you for the feedback from Orlando and good luck toa all

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • similar story where I live, NC.....spoke to two salespeople in two different stores at a local mall around Dec. 15th and one said, they are selling great and also that "we are nearly sold out" (10 days before Xmas). The other one, who I talked to for a while, said they were selling very well and especially the kids uggs which he thought were really moving out the door. he said alot of people were buying uggs who were also wearing uggs and were upgrading or getting a new pair becuase they are so well made and comfortable....I was in the "fad" camp myself but am starting to rethink this and wonder if the shoe has a permanent place in women's closets......I don't know about the 100's or a buyout but under $40 the risk/reward looks really good from here to earnings release. 3rd most searched item on Amazon, P/E down to 9, expectations are really low and the short interest is really high-----where do sign up.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to ezndat
      • A lot of investors forget the famous "market can stay irrational longer than one can stay solvent" axiom. They just qoute it or know it but never fully embraced its FULL, real meaning. It would be fantastic if everybody in the world got rewarded for KNOWING something or getting a great idea....but you know what, the world doesn't work like that.

        The world works in a way where the person with the great idea only gets paid when he puts that good idea or knowledge to use. The reward isn;t instant. Just like building a company or brand takes years, investing your money and getting good returns takes the same amount of time. See, while we claim to "know" something, others or enough people who have the influence to turn the stock upwards have not seen or gooten to the point of "knowing" that we have.

        Once they do, it will be too late. Then everyone knows and the stock is factored in already. We know WHY the stock has gooten to this level somewhat...however ridiculous its actual premise is/was. The winter last year was awfully warm, sheepskin costs got out of control, the company has been very reliant on stable sheepskin prices for virtually the last 7 years, and due to the prices of the product, demand flattened out and the "idea" of UGG beeing a FAD became a "possibility".

        So the stock slammed down. But knowing what we know; 1) UGG is not dead as anyone with eyes can see and data can prove, 2) sheepskin costs are coming down and Deckers istrying to minimalize its reliance on sheeskin in the future by diversifying its product lines, 3) the company has been aggressive in using our companys cash and credit line to grab as many shares as possible in what they and I clearly see as a great opurtunity to load up due to the market pricing in short term problems very severely.

        There are many catalysts for UGG t be great going foward. But there is no rule that the market MUST reward these facts or catalysts instantly. You have a company like Amazon trading at a 3000 p/e when the management has no plan for increasing net income. It's all about just grabbing reveneue for them which is all fine and good, butit is basically a business that just provides jobs but makes no money for its investors trading at a premieum that it can never justify in the next 5 years or 10 years without totally destroying its business model. But the market is irrational longer than one can stay solvent.


61.05-1.11(-1.79%)Oct 9 4:02 PMEDT