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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

  • indian8788 indian8788 Jan 19, 2013 10:11 PM Flag

    Insider buying and what it means

    I research companies for at least an hour everyday. Going over market caps, insider transactions, major holders, earnings call transcripts. There is no other company in retail where I have found an insider buying shares except for Deckers and several buyers as well not just Angel Martinex. All bought at least 20% higher than where we currently are.

    Now what does that mean in the short term? It means nothing. This is the stock market ad much bigger payers than the likes that make up thi message board drive the volume and the valuation. But itmeans a lot for the long term as these people are not crazy. Not only has their been insider buying for this company, but what is even more telling is the major lack of insider selling.

    If somehow we all got it wrong about this company and its prospects, then you would most likely see insiders bailing on the way down legally. The "horrible" numbers that Deckers has posted in the last two years(actually pretty phenomenal) would be told as fact by insiders who read the numbers differently. But instead there is insider buying and virtually no selling.

    Compared to a company like Lululemon which has just risen nonstop these last few years, the CEO of the past year and a half had a vry busy year, selling virtually all but 10% of her 300,000 shares in the 70's which is rigt next to the all time high of 80. Sh now holds 30,000 shares, bu has pocketed 25M in 2012 from her stock sales. The stock is now doen 15% in 2013. Hmm, isn;t it a bit obvious if the CEO sells EVERYTHING as well as other insiders and no buying that the management of the company doesn;t even belive the valuation and is taking profit? Of course. But with Deckers we have the exact opposite tell.

    Now I am not saying insider selling is bad. They are not required to hold their shares and go down with the hi. If the market wants to voervalue their compan, by all means, they should take profit. It is only human. But it doesn't mea they aren;t telling you something by their actions when they SELL EVERYTHING and not just a little at a time(say 5-10%) over several yearswhich is normal prodit taking and being smart.

    I would love to say this is the bottom for DECKERS, clearly I have tried numerous time to call the exact bottom. But that is obviously a fools errand. But at this valuation, there is a tremendous margin of safety. Even if we were to sell off another 50%(and the point is that we COULD), the stock would get bought out at this level as management and we shareholders would notstand for anything less. So we get the 37/share we buy anyway. Ca;t lose much at this level; margin of safety.

    Z

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    • bump!

      Z

    • I have never been a UGG boots fan, thinking it over rated and over priced. Last year when it was on sale due to warm weather, I bought one pair just because it is big sale, I'm surprised to find out when I wore it last month, many of my friends pointed out, ooh, you are wearing ugg boots, nice nice, I was surprised that they are still considered as trendy and cool. Not like the analysis reported. Due to curiosity, I went to Nordstrom store in my area, some of the new arrival sold out. I just checked the weather channel, we will have very cold weather in the next few weeks, as you know, Boston/NYC area is where people are well-heeled who would afford a few pairs of UGG boots. we'll see.

      • 1 Reply to tracycai
      • I think the brand carries the idea of luxury with those that hear the name. Instead of the brand simply being a fad, it has turned into more of a lifestyle/luxurious brand with a growing base of satisfied customers. Winning the hearts of consumers through high-quality and great customer service is the route I would take as a business owner. If the customer base is unhappy then the brand will eventually die off. However, if the quality of the boots and the great customer service continue, this company will last a long time.

    • The hardest part about being a successful investor is going against the majority. I find it sad that we get ridiculed for being a long-term investor, but now days I have learned to avoid shouting to others the truth when all they want is the opposite.

      • 1 Reply to cwebjohn
      • Exactly CEWjohn, these guys don't make any money. They see guys like warren buffet and lynch and realize(at least they should) that it took these guys time and being contrarian to get great deals. I don't believe we are contrarian with Deckers; I think a lot of people can;t make anys sense of the valuation much like most can't make any sense of Amazons OBVIOUS overvaluation. But the market is irrational longer than peole stay solvent and investors always forget this or don't understand how irrational it can be. It is why I stressed that we could lose another 50% from this point, because literally anything is possible.

        I don't waste my time on the peole who yell back. I dealt with that for 2 years on the UA message board while the stock climbed 200%+ for the last 26 months(I sold out a week and a half ago) and they were all proven wrong. The ones who know the least often yell the loudest, with no real input. They don't bother me as they come and they go. They know they are losers but if it hels them let off some steam by pretending they know anything and are even remotely successsful, glad I could help. They are unfortunatee, but there are plenty of them.

        Those who read the post and who strive to educate themselves regarding companies and the market and its irrationality understand what I am saying and that is why I share it. Not looking to be a fan favorite because the second these guys start agreeing with me, then I have a problem ;)

        Z

    • Just another pumping idea? You came out with many different pumping idea since $80, but the stock tank to this level. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. As you demonstrated the last 3 days, when you pump, the stock dove. So for sake of your fellow pumpers, stop pumping!!! LOL

    • If you ever want to make money in the markets, you'd better learn to read a chart in addition to a balance sheet. Or else put your money into an ETF or mutual fund and let a professional manage it for you.

 
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