DECK has broken its triangle range yesterday with a heavy volume. if it can close above last Friday close on upcoming Monday, which I expect to do so (watch the volume on Monday as well), that would be a confirmation.
DECK is then headed toward $50 in a matter of couple of weeks if not days.
I agree with you. I suspect earnings will be just in line or even miss, considering the whole sale volume lower than expected report from one major broker, this is the main reason stock is not in $50 range. However, due to the severe cold weather for all the rich region, NE, NYC, DC, they will raise price target for current quarter significantly, that will build up confidence and a short squeeze is possible. For now, shorts are betting on the source which is the lower sales volume for the Dec month and hoping a big miss. My two cents.
I monitor ebay carefully. In Nov/Dec months, the UGG boots sales rate is about 65% for New item. This is not very good compare to two years ago. However, if you check out ebay last week, it has big spark. I had a new pair of UGG boots and even wear in the house, it is so cold here in Boston. Several of my friends ordered the boots online and cannot wait to wear them for the winter. I would be surprised if at ER they do not predict a stellar first quarter of 2013. As long as the estimate remain in the top range, the stock will stabilize. After that, shorts will start to panic, if it does not crash after earnings, which is what shorts are hoping, they have no catalyst to hold on to it. They will start to cover, some of them shorted at $80 range so they still make very good profit.
The winter boots is all about weather, after two weeks of severe cold weather, most of my friends are sick of it and starting to think of buying another pair of ugg boots, let's be honest, the boots indeed make your feet warm, not just for fashion or status quo, I mean, when you are freezing, your feet is warm helps a lot. This is just common sense. I am confident the Jan-Mar quarter will be stellar, however, the Dec month might be light, someone did homework, I mean the shorts, if you look at the short interest, it is the same as last month, hence, shorts are not panic yet, shorts are usually the ones do more homework, pros, they have source that Dec sales is light, the earnings will come in a bit light, but they need to understand stock is all about future.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Volume wasn't that impressive to be honest, barely above 10 day average. Also, we may see a back test of the upper triangle line before moving higher. There will be a battle at $44.50 as well. Still, $48-50 is probably a reasonable target. There will be some heavy resistance at $51 and long term value doesn't seem to be much more than $55 given a 10% earning growth rate per year for the next 5 years. Still, that's a nice run-up from here.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
This stock is going to 150 + based on top line growth in the coming years along with the margin of safety a seasonal core product like the ugg brand. The ugg name alone is worth our current market cap. Everything else we have and are creating is gravy.