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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

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  • indian8788 indian8788 Jan 30, 2013 1:10 PM Flag

    closing above 40

    JWM, CNBC's handling of Deckers is remind me of how they dealth with Netflix. But people need to realize the people on CNBC are dumb money. Nothing they have done defines them as smart money. In fact, the very fact that they are on the channel implies them as dumb money, pretending to understand dozens of different companies every day. You can't win unless you are focused on finding the most value compared to other assets.

    I'll explain.

    Netflix WAS loved by CNBC and everyne as it kept going up and up. Craer pumped all the way. Once it sold off, that was it. As if the company went bankrupt jst because it sold off.

    Netflix is probably worth 300/share or more but as a company gets closer and closer to its real value, the YIELD one can get on its appreciation gets smaller and smaller and the risk of loss increases.

    Money looks for the most to gain and the least to lose. Sometimes it overreaches in the case of DECKERS and Netflix. So both stocks after reaching high values, 118 and 300 respectively, as significant value was reached and the risk to hold compated to gains was too high. So price resets.

    Yet dumb money doesn;t think about finding value for such company again. They lvoed it, now they hate it and can't see owning it. Burn me once, shame on you....Burn me twice, shame on me mentality.

    But it is wrong. After a drop value starts getting created. More drop, more value created. More drop, EVEN MORE VALUE i created. Then finally bottom is achievd(our 28/share last earnings) because enough value has been created compared to other assets. Investors no longer see a better investment compared to the ultimate return of deckers going foward.

    UGG brand alone is worth 50/share minimum. MINIMUM. So the whole company is worth significantly more

    Z

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