As people Jaques, finding undervalud vs overvalued is not difficult. I see i with people all the time and I've experienced it personally in my first furlough in inesting. People play overtheir head and they nver lear. They buy houses the can't afford, the buy cars/lease carsthey ca't afford, they spend more than they earn(charge that right up please, 'll gladly pay you 25% just to lend me money!).
Over and over aain. How abou waiting until you can pay fo he pruchase? lol. No thanks, I'd pefer being trppe in nevr ending debt. But thanks anyways. lol
Over and over and over again in our "beautful" socety. We are a nation of slaves who just don't reaize it.
Based solely on the amount of UGG boots that I have seen with my own two eyes since November, I think that the brand is quite popular. Your research says that the stock should be valued in the 50's or 60's. As much as I would like to agree with you, I can't understand why some larger investors with some intelligence would not be speculating with small bets on this stock. It seems that they should be snapping up shares on any decline if what you say is true. I am a believer. I just wonder why they don't see what we see.
They do see what I see. The stock is up 40% in 3 months.
I am not saying our valuation makes sense and could be understandable. But I understand the market is very irrational. I accept it.
As they say in AA, the first step is acceptance.
I don't expect the market to see what I see right away, and I respect its notorious irrationality. It has shown me how it behaves in the past, I do not expect it to behave differently.
I make sure I can remain solvent, other investors don't. So even though they are right about the undervauation, they don't play by the rules(to make sure they can remain solvent) and the foul out(margin calls, give up etc).
Then boom, the next month they see the stock higher and they go "I knew it was undervalued". So why aren't they still holding it? Why have they made no money? Becaue they choose not to respect the market and its insanity.
Not all people areequal so while you and I saw clear value at 30, not everyone did. Some more people woke up an saw value at 35. Then more at 37, more at 40. People/investors become aware of things at different times but the reason we are up 40% oer 3 months, is that at every level that investors stumble upon us, they still more value here with the least to lose at this point compared to almost any other investment. Thi will continue.
The pullbacks are what they are...pullbacks. People take profit or trade all the time. But the pullbacks are bought up because they create even more value.