It is a classic case of bad management of inventory, cash, operations, and sales channels. Deckers is bloated at the top. And these things have killed good product companies before and this could become one too if these things are not fixed prudently.
UGGS is an extremely good product and popular boot for winters and young women love them of course if they can afford them. During winters just go to a middle or high school in a well to do area or private school and check it out yourself.
Do you have an idea on how to minimize input costs for the company? One idea would be to maintain their own sheep herds in a controlled environment. However, then the company would have to put their name on environmental concerns and capital costs related to the build out. So, the company has to hedge their input costs based upon expectations on the future.
Jim, Have you considered that sheepskin is UGG and UGG is sheepskin? You can't separate the two. If they were to change the products to include cheaper materials it would destroy the brand.
Business never follows a straight line. Apple was about to go bankrupt at one point. Microsoft may have never seen the growth it achieved if IBM would not have made a foolish decision to focus on hardware instead of software.
UGG is in a cycle right now that only the future can unfold. Right now the cold weather affects the way people think. If it was 60-70 degrees outside in Siberia or Canada then we might need to reconsider the company business plan.