The stock is currently echoing the events of may 2009 to november 2009.
If earnings report is poor to good it should run this way.
There should be one brief run to the 300dma soon and then it will go down from there until the 100/300 crossing.
At that point, it should start upwards as DECK is setting up for a 100/300dma crossing in about 90 days.
It's possible to see $70 by year end.
If earnings report is terrible that will override the technicals- and drop sharply that day.
If earnings report is a home run, it will override the technicals- and rise sharply that day.
Currently, I bought at 40 and sold half at 43. I had a sell order in for 45.50 and missed the high at 45.20.
For what it is worth, I am the guy who said stay away at 28 and had it wrong; however, I am also the guy who bought puts for this past Jan on this when it was a bloated pig at 115 and had strangled it for the last earnings as a hedge, so my winnings as it fell were wonderful. So, take my opinion how you want. I was down in White Plains, NY Mall two days ago and UGGS is opening a new store in April. However, I saw a total of 1-2 pairs of UGGS while shopping and waiting for my wife (an 8 hour day of joy) - weather at 30 degrees. I did not step into Neiman, so not sure how sales were going. I am strangling this for earnings as I can see it either popping hard if GUIDANCE (Not earnings) is upped, but can also see this back in the low 30s if it is the same tune of the last year. Really it might be something to sink some money into, but be prepared to DCA down if it sinks. My concern continues to be that the riding boot, which makes up very little of DECK's revenue, is still the hot style. I saw this transition in the Fall of 2011 and could see some major bumps for DECK. I still see it now as of two days ago. With solid guidance and a 40% short interest, this could see 60, but with the same'ol guidance it sees the low 30s again. Like I said, nothing wrong with shooting in 25% of your load at this point and seeing where it goes. I did this with Ford and accumulation in the 7-9 range put me in a great position overall.
I have written in the past about this "fad" topic that you are alluding to. There have been numerous fads over my lifetime, and I am only 26. The difference is the product has a long-term competitive advantage going for it. Not only does the major (high-quality sheepskin) input cost more to make than a lower-quality version of a knock-off, but it actually feels much better. Even Mr. Kevin Garnett wears the sandals these days, and he is making over $12 million this year. For someone that demands the best from a product, KG has enough money to buy any shoe he desires. Instead, he chooses a sheepskin sandal. This reinforces the idea of a product that is more than a fad.
Your whole "riding boot" idea is a fad in itself. The denim jacket craze in the 90's was a glance back at what a riding boot will become. UGG is being transformed into a multi-styled company with a touch of sheepskin to continue its legacy.
In the end, it all boils down to quality and customer service. Companies break down in the sales department when they start deteriorating on quality and customer service. With these two qualities a brand can become sustainable.
One thing you are underestimating is the Sanuk brand. While UGG sales growth might be muted, the Sanuk brand is revving up its engines.
If riding boots are the new "style," one would hope DECK management realized this and made adjustments to pump out more leather-style boots while maintaining their staple sheepskin UGGS. No excuses this time. If revenue guidance is poor, then back to the 30's this goes. Earnings won't matter too much since they probably bought back enough shares to raise the EPS while revenues stalled. Bottom line, the most money is made when there are the most unknowns. We don't know how revenues will trend this year, we don't know if DECK was able to keep costs down, we don't know if UGGS are going out of style, etc. We do know that the last 3-4 quarters have been disappointing, and that the sentiment is so negative on DECK that if they surprise to the upside then the stock can be 60+ in no time. The large short interest adds fuel to the fire, but if there is no source of ignition then the fuel means nothing.